Gold price stands firm near two-week high, seems poised to appreciate further
Gold price climbs back closer to a two-week high and draws support from a combination of factors.
Geopolitical risks continue to benefit the safe-haven XAU/USD amid December Fed rate cut bets.
The technical setup now seems tilted in favor of bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and moves back closer to a two-week top touched the previous day. Geopolitical tensions continue to bolster safe-haven demand, which, along with the resumption of buying by China’s central bank for the first time in seven months, acts as a tailwind for the precious metal. Furthermore, concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans and their effects on the global economic outlook turn out to be another factor that benefits the bullion.
Meanwhile, Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report reaffirmed bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in December, which contributed to the recent downfall in the US Treasury bond yields. This, along with expectations that Trump's policies will boost inflation, offers support to Gold price, which is considered as a hedge against inflation. However, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, bolstered by bets for a less dovish Fed, might cap the XAU/USD ahead of the US consumer inflation figures on Wednesday.
Gold price is underpinned by safe-haven demand and bets for a rate cut by the Fed in December
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased over the weekend after Syrian rebels took control, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia and driving haven flows towards the Gold price.
The People’s Bank of China announced on Saturday said it bought 160,000 fine troy ounces of Gold in November, ending a six-month pause in purchases and lending additional support to the bullion.
US President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose big tariffs against America’s three biggest trading partners – Mexico, Canada and China – and also threatened a 100% tariff on 'BRICS' nations.
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are currently pricing in over an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points at its December policy meeting.
The recent hawkish remarks by several Fed officials, along with expectations that Trump's policies would reignite inflation, suggest that the US central bank could pause its rate-cutting cycle.
This led to the overnight bounce in the US Treasury bond yields, from the lowest daily close since October 18 posted on Friday, and offers some support to the US Dollar, which might cap the XAU/USD.
This week’s main event will be Wednesday’s release of the US Consumer Price Index for November, which might guide Fed policymakers on their decision and influence the non-yielding yellow metal.
Gold price might now aim to reclaim the $2,700 mark and test the $2,720-2,722 resistance zone
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through and daily close above the $2,650 barrier could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and support prospects for a further appreciating move for the Gold price. Hence, some follow-through strength towards reclaiming the $2,700 mark, en route to the $2,720-2,722 supply zone, looks like a distinct possibility.
On the flip side, the $2,650 resistance breakpoint, which coincides with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, should now act as an immediate strong support. A convincing break below might expose the next relevant support near the $2,625-2,620 area before the Gold price eventually drops to the $2,600 mark. A subsequent break below the 100-day SMA, currently around the $2,590-2,585 region, will set the stage for deeper losses and drag the XAU/USD to the November swing low, around the $2,537-2,536 zone.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
* The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only. This article should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.
