Joby Aviation Stock Just Hit a 52-Week Low. History Says This Happens Next

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) stock is deep in a rut. After starting the year at about $13 a share, it has fallen below $5 and is hovering near its 52-week low of about $4.40.

Nothing seems to be coming to Joby's aid, either. Neither the completion of its first-ever coast-to-coast autonomous flight (in a Cessna equipped with Joby's technology) nor its plans to acquire the profitable defense company Resonant Sciences have done much to lift its share value in 2026. The sparkle, it seems, has been wiped from Wall Street's eyes, and the decline in similar stocks, like Archer Aviation, seems to confirm waning enthusiasm for the nascent eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) industry.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

And yet Joby has been here before. A few times, in fact. Each past downturn has given way to spectacular recoveries, even while its air taxi has remained under development. That leaves the question: Can Joby do it again? And if so, what does it need to do?

A familiar flight path for Joby stock

It wasn't that long ago that Joby Aviation traded around today's price. Indeed, the stock has spent virtually all of its short life in the single digits, with occasional bursts into the double-digit zone after encouraging news.

For example, after going public in 2021, Joby rarely traded above $10. That changed on June 30, 2023, when Joby received a Special Airworthiness Certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to begin flight testing its eVTOL prototype.

The stock then fell back into single digits in July 2023, and it would take nearly two more years before Joby stock would rally again to double digits. In May 2025, news broke that Joby had closed a $250 million investment from Toyota Motor. That, along with President Trump's executive order supporting eVTOLs and Joby's successful flight tests in Dubai, helped the stock break the $10 mark. It then flew upward to $20 before valuation concerns and other uncertainties clipped its wings, bringing it back down to its current price.

What does this mean for Joby investors?

If anything, history shows that Joby can, and often does, recover after a decline. On the other hand, history also shows just how much sentiment -- whether positive or negative -- has been the primary driver behind Joby stock. Big news, rather than material growth, has driven the stock's biggest jumps, while concerns over valuation have led to its biggest losses.

It seems to me, however, that investors are no longer sensitive to Joby's big announcements, as 2026 has made clear. Wall Street has heard enough about flying taxis: It wants to see people booking flights. That is why the stock is falling, as it's unclear when it'll commercialize its air taxi business.

If history repeats, another major announcement, such as FAA type certification or the start of its passenger service, could send Joby back into double digits. I believe Joby could reach those milestones, which is why I think the stock is worth considering for aggressive investors willing to endure the volatility.

Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.