SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: Q3 Revenue Surges 161%, Shares Jump Over 9% After Hours, Poised to Challenge $200

TradingKey - As of the close on October 20 Eastern Time, SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $147.79, down 0.11%. After the market close that day, SpaceX released its third-quarter financial report for 2026. Boosted by the better-than-expected earnings report, the stock price surged as high as $161.56 in after-hours trading, representing a gain of 9.32%.

SpaceX Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations: AI Business Becomes Largest Revenue Source

According to its Q3 financial report, SpaceX generated third-quarter revenue of $14.575 billion, up 161% year-over-year and beating market expectations of approximately $12.87 billion; diluted earnings per share came in at $0.35, also topping market expectations of around $0.13. Net income reached $4.404 billion, compared to a net loss of $1.054 billion in the same period last year, while adjusted EBITDA rose from $2.169 billion to $8.809 billion.

Notably, revenue from the Super Intelligence (SI) business surged in the report. Third-quarter SI revenue reached $7.56 billion, up 830% year-over-year, surpassing the $5.248 billion from the Connectivity segment housing Starlink to become the company's largest revenue source. Operating income for the SI business also turned around to $431 million from an operating loss of $1.722 billion in the same period last year. The company stated that the growth was primarily driven by new cloud service agreements, the acquisition of Cursor, and increased adoption of the Grok application; as of the end of September, nominal compute capacity had reached 1.7 GW.

Meanwhile, the Starlink business also sustained growth. Connectivity revenue grew 69% year-over-year to $5.248 billion, while operating profit rose 99% to $2.367 billion; Starlink consumer subscribers increased from 12 million in the previous quarter to 13.6 million, with monthly ARPU rising from $66 to $69. Enterprise and government revenue reached $2.127 billion, up 91% year-over-year.

However, capital expenditure remains a key area of focus in the earnings report. SpaceX's third-quarter capital expenditure reached $19.593 billion, of which $16.444 billion was invested in the SI business. On the earnings call, management projected that fourth-quarter capex would rise further to $35 billion–$40 billion, but also estimated Q1 2027 revenue to reach $33 billion–$37 billion, planning to achieve an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of 2026. CEO Elon Musk stated that current AI compute demand still exceeds the company's available capacity, while CFO Brad Coffman noted that under current pricing, the payback period for newly deployed compute capacity is under one year.

SPCX Stock Price Technical Analysis

SPCX daily stock price chart. Source: TradingView

Looking at the daily chart of SPCX, the stock price pulled back on Tuesday to test the 60-day moving average again without breaking below it. The closing candlestick formed another long lower shadow for the day, indicating strong support near $140 and the 60-day moving average, significantly boosting short-term market bullish momentum.

Currently, driven by better-than-expected earnings results, the stock surged in after-hours trading to reclaim the $160 level. If the stock continues its after-hours momentum at today's open and holds firmly above $160, it will further open up upside potential toward $172–$176.42. A decisive breakout and consolidation above $176.42 could pave the way for a challenge toward the $200 mark.

On the downside, the primary support to watch is the $143–$140 range. If the stock breaks below $140, it may open up downside room toward $130, or even lead to a deeper pullback toward $105.