AMD Stock Is Up Over 140% This Year. I'd Still Buy It Before Its Nov. 3 Report.

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) shareholders have had a remarkable 2026. As of this writing, the stock is around $530, up more than 140% since the year started.

The last two weeks have been tougher. On Oct. 6, the stock closed at a record $649.42. Since then, it's dropped around 19%. And the pullback comes about two weeks before AMD reports third-quarter results on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Is the stock worth buying before that report, or is it better to wait for management's update? I lean toward buying. Most of what the report has to show is already in AMD's own guidance.

Image source: AMD.

AMD keeps topping its own guidance

When AMD posted second-quarter results on Aug. 4, management guided for third-quarter revenue between $12.7 billion and $13.3 billion. The $13 billion midpoint is around 41% above the year-ago period and about 13% above the second quarter's record $11.5 billion. Management also sees a non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin of around 56%, matching the second quarter.

AMD has given investors reason to trust these ranges. First-quarter revenue of $10.3 billion was above the top of the company's guidance range of $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion. Second-quarter revenue then edged just over the top of its range.

Profits are keeping up, too. Adjusted earnings per share hit $1.66 for the second quarter, up 21% sequentially. Against a year-ago quarter dragged down by $800 million of inventory and related charges linked to U.S. export controls, it more than tripled.

But a strong report hasn't guaranteed a strong reaction. Shares lost 7% the day after the second-quarter report, and the two reports before that brought a 17% slide in February and a 19% rise in May.

Will data center growth slow in Q3?

Showing how much AMD now leans on it, the data center segment, which sells server processors and artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, made up 58% of second-quarter revenue. Sales there climbed from $5.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $5.8 billion and then $6.7 billion in the first two quarters of 2026. Year-over-year growth picked up every time: 39%, then 57%, then 107%.

But the run will probably end in the third quarter, at least on paper. The segment pulled in $4.3 billion in the year-ago quarter, so even 100% growth would mean around $8.7 billion in data center revenue -- about $2 billion over its second-quarter total. AMD's guidance adds only about $1.5 billion in revenue for the whole company, and management expects gaming sales to fall.

Chief financial officer Jean Hu said on the second-quarter earnings call that the data center acceleration AMD expects compares the second half of 2026 to the first half, not one quarter to the last. And management still sees strong double-digit sequential growth in data center revenue in the third quarter.

So, a slower year-over-year rate would mainly reflect a far tougher comparison, not a slowing business.

Helios is the bigger test

Much of AMD's growth from here rides on Helios, its rack-scale AI server system. On that same call, CEO Lisa Su spelled out the timing.

"We've said Q3 is the very beginning of the ramp, Q4 is a step-up, and then Q1 will be a further step-up and we'll ramp as we go through 2027," she said.

So the third-quarter results probably won't show much of Helios. The fourth-quarter revenue guidance AMD gives on Nov. 3 is likely where Su's step-up first shows up.

That outlook is also where the stock is most exposed. Going by analysts' average estimate, shares trade at around 34 times 2027 earnings, down from about 41 times 2027 earnings at the Oct. 6 record close. True, that's a lower valuation than the stock had at its high. But it still assumes Helios ramps on schedule. A fourth-quarter outlook with a smaller step-up than Su described could push shares down, even if third-quarter revenue tops its range again.

Investors who'd rather see that guidance before paying 34 times expected 2027 earnings have a reasonable case for waiting. After all, the stock has swung at least 7% the day after each of its past three reports.

Still, I think the pullback and AMD's record against its own guidance make the stock attractive at this price. I'd consider buying a starter position before the report and leave room to add if the price comes down.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.