Anthropic Reportedly Posted Quarterly Revenue Growth of 50% and Was Cash-Flow Positive. Here's Why It Might Not Be Enough to Impress Investors Before the Company's Massive IPO

Investors are anxiously awaiting the filing of the registration statement by the frontier artificial intelligence model company Anthropic ahead of a suspected initial public offering that could value the company at $2 trillion.

While that statement remains in limbo (as of Oct. 16), the company reportedly hosted a private investor day recently, with management telling investors it generated $16.8 billion in revenue for the three months ending Sept. 30, according to The Financial Times, which cited anonymous sources.

This represents quarter-over-quarter revenue growth of 50%. The company also reportedly said it was cash flow positive in the recent quarter and profitable on an adjusted basis.

While an AI company reporting these numbers on the eve of its IPO would typically be well received, here's why that may not help Anthropic before its IPO.

Image source: Getty Images.

Growth slowed in the recent quarter

Anthropic's 50% growth from the prior quarter actually slowed from the quarterly growth Anthropic posted between the first and second quarters of the year, when the company reportedly posted 140% growth. Furthermore, the $16.8 billion in revenue suggests a slower run rate than some investors had expected.

According to MarketWatch, Jefferies analyst Jeffrey Favuzza wrote in a recent research note that the market had been expecting an annual revenue run rate of at least $80 billion, with hopes that the company would reach $105 billion by the end of 2026.

On the plus side, the company is growing revenue fast, while generating positive cash flow and an adjusted profit, although understanding what's being adjusted will be key.

Additionally, Bloomberg Tech Anchor Ed Ludlow wrote on social media site X that the company told investors it had 85% gross margins on a GAAP basis, which would be a big deal if true. Even Nvidia's gross margins have only been in the mid-70s percentile recently.

Anthropic has shown some reason for caution

Anthropic has now delayed its registration twice.

The environment has gotten murkier due to AI safety concerns that have become ever more prominent in the public eye, whether it's been rogue AI agents hacking into security systems or a former OpenAI and Anthropic researcher warning that he sees over a 10% chance of AI ending humanity.

The business is also incredibly capital-intensive, with Anthropic expected to spend over half a trillion on AI infrastructure over the next decade, according to Reuters.

According to the Financial Post, Saxo Markets Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana said that while Anthropic's revenue is impressive, it's unlikely to impress investors right now.

"The market has moved from simply rewarding growth to asking much tougher questions about funding, cost of capital and returns on that spending," she said. "For Anthropic's IPO, these numbers strengthen the growth story, but valuation will still be the big debate ... A valuation above $2 trillion would be roughly 30 times annualized Q3 revenue, while investors will also have to digest the enormous infrastructure commitments required to sustain that growth."

Anthropic is trying to go public at a tougher time

Jitters that investors have discussed for months have finally started to hit stock prices.

Investors are rotating out of AI due to a range of concerns, including returns on capital investment, whether the era of easy money is over, and what might happen to a company like Anthropic if it poses a significant safety risk.

These are all difficult questions, and Anthropic is the next big test for the AI trade. My guess is that, similar to Space Exploration Technologies, the IPO gets done because Anthropic, along with OpenAI, is considered a leading frontier model and likely too enticing for investors to ignore.

But from there, I suspect it will be tough sledding, similar to what SpaceX has experienced.

Insider share unlocks, competition for investment flows, and a high valuation likely won't leave much upside, which is why retail investors will have to examine the registration statement carefully when it comes out before deciding whether to buy the stock.

Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Jefferies Financial Group and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.