Bloom Energy Stock Is 31% Below Its Record. Here's Where I Think It Will Be in 2030.

Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) stock has surged as artificial intelligence (AI) data centers have turned to the company's fuel cells for on-site power. Even after dropping 9% on Oct. 14, shares closed at $239.34, up almost 1,000% in the last five years.

But the stock has also come down hard from its high. The close was around 31% below its June 22 record of $345.85.

So, where might Bloom stock be at the end of 2030? My forecast is around $230 a share, near where it trades now. I think the company can get much bigger and more profitable in the next four years. I just don't think today's valuation leaves much room for the stock to reward that growth.

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How big could Bloom get by 2030?

Bloom grew its revenue 37% in 2025, to $2.02 billion. Growth then picked up sharply this year, with second-quarter revenue up 166% year over year to $1.07 billion.

And management now expects $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion of revenue for all of 2026, around twice last year's total at the midpoint. The company also plans to double its Fremont, California, factory's annual production capacity from 1 gigawatt to 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026.

For my forecast, I'll assume Bloom's revenue hits around $12 billion in 2030, or about triple the midpoint of this year's guidance. That would mean growth of about 31% a year after 2026 -- under a third of this year's rate. Getting there would likely take another factory expansion after this one.

Margins may be flattening out

A year ago, Bloom's non-GAAP (adjusted) operating margin was just 7.1%. It rose to 17.3% in the first quarter of 2026, then hit 22.5% in the second quarter as revenue more than doubled.

But management's full-year guidance is for adjusted operating income of $800 million to $900 million. After the first half, that implies a margin of only about 21% to 22% over the rest of the year.

So the big gain could already be behind Bloom, at least for now. Its third-quarter report on Oct. 22 should show the first of the second-half quarters.

Taxes might also take a bigger bite. Bloom recorded almost no income tax expense on its second-quarter profit, helped by $2.3 billion in federal tax-loss carryforwards it had at the end of 2025. With at least $800 million of adjusted operating income expected this year alone, those carryforwards might be mostly used up long before 2030.

In my base case, Bloom keeps around 22 cents of adjusted profit for every dollar of revenue in 2030, a little over the 21% or so that this year's guidance implies. Even that takes progress, of course, because holding the margin after taxes likely means operating margins in the high 20s.

On $12 billion of revenue, that's around $2.6 billion of adjusted earnings. Spread across about 340 million diluted shares (up from about 323 million in the second quarter), it's about $7.75 a share. That's nearly triple the $2.70 midpoint of management's adjusted earnings-per-share guidance for 2026.

What would that be worth?

I'll pick 30 times adjusted earnings as the stock's price-to-earnings ratio at the end of 2030.

For a growth stock that could still be expanding at a solid double-digit pace by then, I think that's a fair price. But it's a big step down from today. After all, at $239.34, shares cost nearly 90 times adjusted earnings, using the $2.70 per share Bloom expects this year.

Thirty times $7.75 of adjusted earnings per share brings me to around $230 a share. From the Oct. 14 close, that's a total drop of about 4%, or a loss of a bit under 1% a year.

If margins just stay near today's levels, the result looks worse. Say Bloom's adjusted operating margin holds around 21% and taxes take a normal bite. So adjusted profit might be closer to 17 cents per dollar of revenue, or about $6 per share in 2030. At 30 times adjusted earnings, the stock would be near $180, about 25% under the Oct. 14 close.

Sure, if demand keeps outrunning Bloom's factories, revenue might well beat $12 billion. But a short-seller's July report questioning Bloom's accounting (which the company rejected), adds another risk besides margins.

In the end, I think Bloom will probably be a much larger, more profitable company in 2030 than it is today. The trouble is the starting price. Earnings per share could nearly triple and still leave shareholders around where they started, so I'd want a lower price before buying the stock.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.