SpaceX Reports Earnings Tomorrow. Here's What Wall Street Expects and What You Should Pay Attention To
Key Points
SpaceX reports its first-ever quarterly earnings as a public company tomorrow -- and after a 50%-plus drop from post-IPO highs, expectations are all over the map.
Wall Street expects roughly $6.82 billion in revenue, but analysts admit their estimates are highly uncertain.
Key thing to watch include free cash flow, AI division, Starlink's average revenue per user, and Starship development progress.
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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) reports quarterly results tomorrow, Aug. 4, after the market closes. It's the first time the company will do so after its high-profile June IPO. These may be the most closely watched earnings of the year so far.
SpaceX went public on June 12 in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, raising, in total, a staggering $85.7 billion. Shares were priced at $135, closed the first day at $160.95, and ran as high as $225.64 just days later.
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That’s not been the story since. Shares have fallen more than 50% from their peak and are now trading around $111, headed into tomorrow’s earnings.
So, what does Wall Street expect from SpaceX? And what should you be paying attention to beyond the headline numbers?
What Wall Street expects from SpaceX's first earnings report
The Wall Street consensus is currently set at $6.82 billion in revenue with a non-GAAP loss of $0.23 per share.
You should know that these are very rough estimates. As one Cantor Fitzgerald analyst put it, the “quarter likely suffers from an extreme estimate skew.” That’s analyst speak for Wall Street isn’t quite sure what to expect.
Here’s a look at the company’s most recent performance, broken down by segment.
| Segment | Q1 2026 revenue | Q1 2026 operating income (loss) |
|---|---|---|
| Connectivity (Starlink) | $3.26 billion | $1.19 billion |
| Space (rockets) | $619 million | ($662 million) |
| AI (Grok, X, data centers) | $818 million | ($2.47 billion) |
Source: Company Filings
Four things I'm watching beyond the headline numbers
OK, here’s what I think you should look out for.
First, cash. Earnings figures, especially ones like earnings before interest, taxes, amortization, and depreciation (EBITDA), can often be a bit misleading. Cash statements reveal a more direct vision of the company’s present financial reality, in my view, especially for businesses that require a whole lot of capital expenditures (capex).
SpaceX generated $1 billion in operating cash flow last quarter -- the cash the business itself produced -- but free cash flow (FCF), the money left over after it also pays for things like equipment and construction, came in at negative $9.1 billion. Pay close attention to this figure.
Second, AI. Now, this is closely related to the first. The AI division was reportedly burning about $1 billion a month last quarter. Massive investment with little revenue. This is likely to look much different given its recent deals with Anthropic and Google. Will these deals make AI a profitable enterprise?
Third, Starlink. This is the company’s financial heart, and its success is critical for SpaceX as a whole. While revenue growth, earnings, and customer growth will all be important to pay attention to, what I’m really interested in is average revenue per user (ARPU). This is an important figure for the long-term vision of Starlink. Is the company sacrificing ARPU for growth?
And finally, Starship. The new rocket is foundational to SpaceX’s growth plans, a cornerstone of its vision for the future. So, I’m extremely interested in any operational developments here. How close are we to full commercial deployment?
Wall Street is, by and large, very bullish on this one
The consensus among Wall Street is currently a buy with an average 12-month price target of $293, which is quite an upside. Take a look below at a sampling of the Street’s targets; you’ll see that there are definitely some outliers in the bunch, one extremely bullish, the other bearish.
| Firm | Analyst | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James | Brian Gesuale | Strong Buy | $800 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Jonas | Overweight | $300 |
| Deutsche Bank | Edison Yu | Buy | $255 |
| J.P. Morgan | Doug Anmuth | Overweight | $225 |
| CFRA | Keith Snyder | Sell | $115 |
Source: Google Finance
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