Taiwan Semiconductor Just Reclaimed a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It Still Trades at About 20 Times Forward Earnings.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) got back above one of the market's biggest round numbers on Thursday, July 30. A 7.6% jump in the shares carried the chip foundry giant's market cap through the $2 trillion mark again, to about $2.1 trillion, where it stood at Friday's close.

The company had surrendered that level during the stock's slide from its 52-week high of $479 -- a drop that, at its worst, erased roughly a fifth of the company's value even as its results kept improving. As recently as the middle of last week, the market cap sat around $1.9 trillion.

Milestone valuations usually come attached to milestone-sized expectations. This one doesn't. At about $403 per U.S.-listed share, the stock trades at about 28 times earnings and about 20 times forward earnings estimates -- roughly what investors pay for an average large company. I'd argue that combination of an ordinary multiple and an extraordinary business is the story worth examining here.

Image source: TSMC.

The growth that carried it back

Taiwan Semiconductor (often called TSMC) manufactures chips for the companies that design them, and its second-quarter report on July 16 showed what the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out is doing for that business. Revenue rose about 34% year over year in U.S. dollars to $40.2 billion, up 12% from the first quarter. And net income, measured in New Taiwan dollars, grew 77% year over year to a record, working out to $4.31 per U.S.-listed share for the quarter.

The profitability behind those figures is extraordinary for a manufacturer. Gross margin came in at 67.7%, and operating margin reached 60.3%. Advanced technologies (chips built on 7-nanometer processes and smaller) generated 77% of wafer revenue, with the 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer families contributing 30% and 33%, respectively.

Even more encouraging, the next growth driver is just starting. The company's newest 2-nanometer process accounted for only 3% of wafer revenue in the quarter.

"Moving into third quarter 2026, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies, including the steep ramp-up of our 2-nanometer technology," chief financial officer Wendell Huang said in the second-quarter earnings release.

Guidance backs the words with numbers. Management expects third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, another 12% sequential increase at the midpoint. The one soft spot: Gross margin is guided to 65% to 67%, a step down from 67.7%, as the costly early phase of the 2-nanometer ramp works through the factories.

An ordinary price for an unusual business

Now set the valuation against all of that. At about 20 times forward earnings estimates, TSMC trades at roughly the same forward multiple as its customer Nvidia, and far below fellow chip designer Advanced Micro Devices, which fetches about 54 times forward estimates. Both of those companies lean on TSMC's factories to build the chips their valuations ride on. Investors, in other words, can own the company that manufactures nearly every leading-edge AI chip for a fraction of what some of its customers cost -- priced closer to a value stock than to the AI names it supplies.

Why the discount? The market has its reasons, and they're not silly. TSMC is a cyclical manufacturer, and chip downturns have historically hit foundries hard. Most of its production also sits in Taiwan, so investors apply a geopolitical discount that no earnings report can erase. Additionally, heavy spending on new capacity could pressure returns if AI demand cools before the new factories fill.

However, a 20-times-forward price doesn't need heroic assumptions to work. It mostly needs the revenue already guided for, and the margins management is already delivering, to hold together. With third-quarter guidance pointing 12% higher sequentially and the 2-nanometer ramp still in its early innings, the growth on the books arguably covers the price with room to spare.

And the forward multiple likely understates the earnings power if the ramp goes well. A company that just grew profits 77% doesn't stay at an average price because its business is average. It stays there because investors are discounting risks the income statement can't capture.

A slowdown in AI spending by customers like Nvidia could change the math, and the Taiwan risk never goes away. If the next report shows gross margin landing below the guided 65% to 67%, I'd take a fresh look at my reasoning. But at this valuation, I don't need to believe anything extravagant to like the stock. So, I'd buy it.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.