What a $1,000 Investment in SpaceX at IPO Would Be Worth Today and What Comes Next

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), better known as SpaceX, priced shares for $135 in its June 2026 initial public offering (IPO). The stock has since fallen nearly 16% to $113.5 as of July 27.

A $1,000 investment at the IPO price would have purchased about 7.41 shares and would now be worth roughly $841 as of this writing. However, that calculation assumes the investor received shares at the IPO price, which was not guaranteed for every retail investor. Strong investor demand and a limited supply of publicly traded shares helped drive SpaceX stock higher after its IPO. Investors reportedly submitted more than $250 billion in orders for the SpaceX IPO, while less than 5% of the company's shares were initially available for trading. The stock later lost much of its early gain as investors questioned its lofty valuation.

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Against this backdrop, SpaceX's long-term share price trajectory depends heavily on whether the Starlink satellite internet business can continue to grow profitably and the next-generation Starship reusable rocket system can become a reliable commercial business.

Starlink remains the profit engine

SpaceX's connectivity segment, powered mainly by Starlink, generated $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit in the first quarter. However, the operating profit can be misleading because SpaceX does not expense the full cost of launching Starlink satellites immediately. Instead, it capitalizes those internal satellite and launch costs in the Connectivity segment and recognizes them gradually through depreciation. In the first quarter, depreciation from capitalized satellite and launch costs added $276 million to Connectivity's cost of revenue.

Anthropic has also agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month for computing capacity through May 2029, although fees are lower during the May and June 2026 ramp-up period.

While that contract could eventually make AI a larger source of revenue, the AI segment is still loss-making. SpaceX's AI segment posted a $2.47 billion operating loss in the first quarter, showing that rapidly rising compute revenue may not immediately translate into profits. Hence, for now, Connectivity segment remains the company's main source of operating profit.

What comes next

SpaceX will report second-quarter results on Aug. 4. Around 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors could become eligible for sale soon after this earnings report. While not all the eligible shareholders may sell the stock immediately, even a partial release could sharply increase the stock's available supply and add to near-term volatility.

SpaceX's planned $60 billion stock-funded Cursor acquisition would dilute existing shareholders if completed. Additionally, the $25 billion bond offering adds interest costs as the company continues investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI), Starship, and other ambitious projects.

Starship is also expected to become a key growth catalyst. The rocket is designed to carry up to 60 higher-capacity Starlink V3 satellites per launch, potentially deploying 20 times more network capacity than the currently used Falcon 9 rocket. However, SpaceX must still prove that Starship can launch and be reused reliably enough to lower costs and improve Starlink's economics.

SpaceX is trading at roughly 38.5 times the analyst consensus 2026 revenue estimate of $39.3 billion. The premium valuation assumes major success across several businesses that are not yet profitable or fully commercial.

SpaceX could eventually justify a premium if Starlink maintains strong margins, Starship becomes dependable, and AI segment becomes profitable.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.