Natural Gas: Fragile supply risks keep prices elevated – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Florence Schmit highlights that TTF Natural Gas remains exposed to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and QatarEnergy’s extended force majeure. Despite some recovery in Qatari LNG flows, Rabobank expects TTF prices around €51-52/MWh for Q3–Q4 2026, with winter scenarios ranging from normalization to escalation. Their base case sees a gradual easing only once global LNG moves into oversupply next year.

European benchmark gas faces chokepoint risk

"The Strait remains a critical chokepoint for global LNG trade, and any sustained interruption would have significant consequences for both Asian and European gas balances."

"Still, QatarEnergy’s extension of force majeure through mid-October points to a longer period of constrained LNG availability, which is why we are raising our TTF and JKM gas forecasts slightly for Q3 and Q4 2026 to €51-52/MWh and $17.00-18.50/MMBtu, respectively."

"We are currently forecasting Qatari LNG supply to start making a more meaningful return towards September/October by which point it will still be too late to return the global LNG market to comfortable supply. Winter TTF and JKM gas prices will have to reflect this reality."

"With limited alternatives for the LNG market in the short-term, price risks remain skewed to the upside even if a U.S.-Iran deal were reached in the coming weeks. We view the price path for TTF and JKM gas at €51-52/MWh and $17-18/MMBtu for the rest of Q3 and Q4."

"If, however, geopolitical tensions rise again or shipping confidence weakens, the same chokepoint risk could quickly become more material and push any Qatari LNG resumption further away. In that scenario gas prices are more likely to trade in the ~€60/MWh range and $21/MMBtu in the winter, respectively."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)