NVIDIA (NVDA) Price Forecast: $250B OpenAI Guarantee, SK Group $500B, Vera Rubin Live

TradingKey - NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is facing a decisive week in 2026 as investors determine whether the massive amount of new artificial intelligence-related news can overcome a critically important earnings quarter. At the time of press, the company's stock was valued at $206.80 (12% lower than its all-time high), following reported year-over-year growth of 85% and the company's guidance for a fourth consecutive record quarter of revenue.

Additional reports that NVIDIA may be negotiating a $250 billion data centre guarantee for OpenAI, combined with a newly signed, fully fleshed-out deal with the SK Group and ramp-ups in Vera Rubin production, indicate that the company is becoming more involved in the global AI infrastructure build-out.

The $250 Billion OpenAI Guarantee - This Weekend's Most Important Development

Over the weekend The Wall Street Journal reported this past weekend that NVIDIA is considering offering a $250 billion guarantee for an OpenAI data centre. Though there’s still much negotiation to be done, this would go far beyond selling NVIDIA’s GPUs; by helping finance the infrastructure for one of the biggest AI projects in the world, NVIDIA would essentially be supporting long-term demand for its GPUs while locking OpenAI into its ecosystem. If struck, the guarantee would be one of the largest semiconductor agreements ever seen. 

This statement comes after SK Group said it had inked an agreement for NVIDIA to join its $500 billion partnership, which includes an AI factory with a 2-gigawatt capacity, an agreement for HBM4 memory with SK Hynix and, lastly, Vera Rubin. All of this news speaks to how NVIDIA has shifted from a chip manufacturer to an AI infrastructure provider, using its cash on hand and its industry relationships to cement its future success.

What Vera Rubin in Full Production Means

NVIDIA has begun mass production of its Vera Rubin, the next-gen data centre, which has been launched at 350+ facilities in 30 countries, and with which 300+ ecosystem partners will work with. In hyperscaling cloud data centres for Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, CoreWeave and Nebius, it will soon be rolling out Vera Rubins as hyperscalers build more AI infrastructure. 

Vera Rubin is more efficient than its predecessor Grace Blackwell at supporting AI inference, which allows customers to get the most compute power per watt of energy, as they are becoming increasingly constrained by the limits on power and cooling. Additionally, Vera Rubin requires more HBM memory and higher networking bandwidth, which supports a greater number of SK Hynix supplies, as well as a higher price per GPU cluster. 

Vera Rubin’s production is ramping throughout the second half of 2026, which would boost the average price per AI system for NVIDIA and further solidify NVIDIA’s lead in AI infrastructure.

The Capex Read-Through From This Week's Earnings

This week’s earnings for Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Amazon might be as vital to NVIDIA’s stock as its own results. Alphabet just reiterated that the company is optimistic about the AI spending cycle, as it reported that its second-quarter capital expenditure was $44.9 billion, and it boosted its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 to $195 billion to $205 billion. 

If other hyperscalers keep the same spending levels or even raise them, it could mean NVIDIA’s $91 billion 2Q26 revenue forecast will hold true and that there is a steady demand for its AI chip. 

If, on the other hand, investors find evidence of slowing AI infrastructure spending, then it might indicate to them that the current AI investment cycle is coming to a halt. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s valuation is becoming a bargain, now trading at 31.7x earnings, the lowest multiple for it in over a year. 

It had 85% year-over-year revenue growth, the drop in its valuation reflecting a fall in its share price instead of its fundamentals, so NVIDIA is now trading at a cheaper-than-expected price relative to its projected growth rate.

Can the $205 Level Sustain NVIDIA's Latest Rally? NVDA Technical Review

The stock's upward trajectory has remained largely intact, even as recent trading has been choppy, as it has held to its rising trendline from the March lows. As it stands, NVDA trades at $206.80, where it has formed a support zone around where the 50- and 200-period EMAs ($207.61 and $205.49, respectively) have converged, with momentum neutral, as the relative strength index (RSI) indicates a reading near 50.

In the near term, $204.92 represents an immediate technical focal point, formed where the aforementioned trendline and moving averages converge. If the stock closes decisively beneath this support, the prevailing setup would break down, opening up further downside targets at $197.90 and $191.56. 

NVDA Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Conversely, if a bullish move above $213.13 confirms, it will be indicative of a resumption of the rally, opening up further upside targets at $218.63 and $223.92. With Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Amazon all reporting this week, AI spending guidance could be the determining factor for either NVIDIA retesting the aforementioned key support level or finally breaking resistance.

Key Levels for NVDA

• Current: $206.80
• 52-Week Range: $164.07 to $236.54
• Key Support: $204.92 (ascending trendline) then $197.90 then $191.56
• Key Resistance: $213.13 then $218.63 then $223.92
• FY2027 Q1 Revenue (Actuals): $81.6 billion (+85% YoY); Q2 (Guidance): $91 billion
• Overnight Catalysts: $250 billion OpenAI data center guarantee talks (WSJ); $500 billion SK Group partnership confirmed; Vera Rubin now in full production
• Valuation: P/E 31.7x; Implied PEG of ~0.37

Reported to be negotiating a $250 billion OpenAI Data Center Guarantee

According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, NVIDIA is exploring a $250 billion OpenAI data center promise to help OpenAI launch a data center business. It's not likely a deal to sell a few chips, but a form of lending or financing assistance towards the construction of one of the world's biggest data centers built for AI.

If successful, it could guarantee the supply of NVIDIA GPUs for the long-term in exchange for OpenAI giving NVIDIA core status among its partners in AI development. No deal has been officially announced yet and talks are ongoing, but if they go well, NVIDIA's claim to not only sell chips but also to be a central infrastructure partner in building the world's largest AI infrastructure network would be further solidified.

Why NVIDIA's P/E Just Now at 31.7x

NVIDIA is trading at a P/E of 31.7x despite the company reporting YoY revenue growth of 85% because earnings have increased at a faster pace relative to share price, the price having since pulled back around 12% from its high. A broader backdrop of questions regarding whether AI infrastructure spending would remain strong enough in subsequent periods to justify valuations has also held pressure on the broader semiconductor complex. Yet, even if growth were to slow over the next two quarters (hypothetically), the implied PEG of ~0.37 would still indicate NVIDIA to be attractively priced relative to its growth prospects, if hyperscalers were to continue investing at the same rates in the AI infrastructure buildout in the coming years.

The Bottom Line

NVIDIA enters a potentially game-changing week, having just recently been presented with a series of catalysts regarding the company's future growth trajectory. Reported $250 billion OpenAI guarantee talks, a $500 billion partnership with South Korea's SK Group and Vera Rubin now in full production. 

However, while the company has strong fundamentals, this week's earnings results from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon could provide clarity as to how much longer hyperscalers will continue spending on AI infrastructure to support NVIDIA's growth outlook. Technically, key support resides at $204.92 and a move above $213.13 could help reinvigorate the broader bullish setup.