Intel's Foundry Just Landed Its First Named Outside Customer Under Lip-Bu Tan. The Stock Jumped More Than 8% -- 2 Days Before Earnings.

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) CEO Lip-Bu Tan told CNBC in May that "multiple customers" were working with the company's foundry business, but that it was his personal policy not to name them. On Tuesday, Intel finally named one.

Cybersecurity specialist Fortinet will use Intel's foundry (the business that manufactures chips for other companies) to produce its next-generation security chip, called the SP6, the two companies announced. The chip will be built on the Intel 4 process, and Fortinet becomes the first named outside customer for the foundry since Tan took over in March 2025.

Investors saw plenty to like. Intel shares jumped more than 8% on Tuesday to close at $105.40, adding to a run that has lifted the stock more than 300% over the past year.

And the timing raises the stakes. Intel reports second-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday, July 23.

So what does the Fortinet deal actually prove -- and what should investors watch for in the report?

Image source: Intel.

A name matters more than the chip

Intel's foundry effort has never lacked announcements. What it has lacked is named, committed customers. And Intel has yet to land a major one for its most advanced manufacturing processes, known as 14A and 18A.

That history is what makes the Fortinet deal both encouraging and limited.

On the positive side, a company has now publicly committed a next-generation product to Intel's manufacturing. That is the kind of outside validation the foundry strategy has been missing, and it arguably makes the next customer conversation easier. Fortinet is a credible name, too. The cybersecurity company's dedicated security chips serve a market where demand has been climbing for years.

However, the SP6 will be built on Intel 4. That's an older, less advanced process, introduced in 2023 for the compute tile in Intel's own Core Ultra PC chips -- not the leading-edge technology Intel's turnaround ultimately depends on. A named customer on Intel 4 is progress. It isn't the marquee win that would prove Intel can manufacture the industry's most advanced chips in large quantities.

The economics are still tiny

The deal's financial weight is the other reason to stay level-headed. In the first quarter, Intel Foundry generated $5.4 billion of revenue, up 16% year over year. But nearly all of that came from making Intel's own products. External foundry revenue (money from manufacturing chips for outside customers) was just $174 million in the quarter. That's a sliver for a company that posted $13.6 billion in total revenue.

Demand for Intel's own chips, at least, is trending the right way -- even as the company confirmed this week that it is trimming jobs in that same data center unit. First-quarter revenue in the company's data center and artificial intelligence (AI) segment rose 22% year over year, faster than the company's overall 7% growth rate.

"The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user," Tan said in the company's first-quarter earnings release, adding that the shift "is significantly increasing the need for Intel's CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings."

Even so, Intel's reported bottom line is still in the red while it builds out capacity. The company posted a net loss of $3.7 billion in the first quarter -- though $4.1 billion of restructuring and impairment charges, largely a writedown of Mobileye goodwill, more than accounted for it. On a non-GAAP basis, which strips out those and other items, Intel earned $1.5 billion.

That's what makes Thursday's report the more important event of the week. Investors should watch three things: the trajectory of external foundry revenue, the size of the net loss, and any sign that a significant leading-edge customer is getting closer.

And the stock's run complicates the setup. After rising more than 300% in a year, Intel trades at nearly 90 times forward earnings -- a multiple that assumes the turnaround works, not one that leaves room for it to stumble. For a company still in the red on a reported basis, that is a lot of confidence to carry into an earnings report. And Tuesday's move, which came amid a broad chip-sector rally, showed how eager the market is to reward any scrap of foundry progress.

The Fortinet announcement is the first outside proof point of the Tan era, and I don't want to diminish it. A foundry needs customers willing to say so publicly, and now Intel has one. But the deal contributes a signal -- Intel didn't disclose what it contributes in dollars. At this valuation, Intel needs to deliver both. I'd want to see Thursday's numbers (external foundry revenue in particular) before paying nearly 90 times forward earnings for a turnaround still finding its footing.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Fortinet and Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.