Standard Chartered Renews Call for $100,000 Bitcoin by End of 2026. Here's the Most Likely Scenario

Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, provided a bullish Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) forecast earlier this month. In a note to investors, he reaffirmed a $100,000 price target for the leading cryptocurrency by the end of 2026. He also touched on Strategy's (NASDAQ: MSTR) recent Bitcoin sales, calling them "mostly noise rather than a signal."

Bitcoin sits at about $64,000 as of July 17, so it would need to increase 56% to meet that target. That's certainly possible -- Bitcoin has delivered those types of gains before -- but there are reasons to be skeptical of Standard Chartered's call.

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Strategy's Bitcoin sales might be more than noise

I wouldn't be too quick to hand-wave away Strategy's recent moves. For years, Chairman Michael Saylor's mantra was "never sell your Bitcoin," and Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin by a wide margin, holding over 840,000 BTC. MARA Holdings is second with less than 40,000, according to recent research by The Motley Fool.

Saylor has said his advice was aimed at individual investors, that the sales are for small amounts, and he has framed this as a positive move for Strategy and Bitcoin. The market doesn't see it that way. Since first selling Bitcoin on May 26, Strategy is down 41%, and the cryptocurrency itself is down 17%.

The fact that such a major proponent of Bitcoin has sold isn't good for confidence in the cryptocurrency or Strategy's business model. There are also many other Bitcoin treasury companies that took a copycat approach and may now reconsider their positions after Strategy has had to sell.

Don't expect Bitcoin to hit $100,000 this year

After peaking at $126,198 last October, Bitcoin lost over half its value by the end of June. Bitcoin has experienced several drawdowns like this, and it has typically taken about two to three years to recover. The exception was in 2021, when it declined 50%, but that was a much quicker pullback and rebound. It peaked in April 2021, bottomed out in July, and was back at a new all-time high in October.

The current bear market has already lasted longer than that, and the sentiment surrounding the crypto market isn't the best. Interest is down, with many investors shifting their attention to artificial intelligence stocks due to their much higher returns over the last year.

With that in mind, Bitcoin soaring back to $100,000 over the second half of the year seems highly optimistic. The more likely scenario is that it treads water for the rest of 2026 and potentially 2027, as well. Multi-year bear markets are common with cryptocurrency, which is one of the reasons it's a risky asset class. Bitcoin has a good chance of bouncing back eventually, as it's the leading and most resilient digital asset, but patience is a must if you invest in it.

Lyle Daly has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Standard Chartered Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.