General Motors (GM) Q2 2026 Preview: $3.13 EPS Expected, 20% Average Beat Rate

TradingKey - General Motors (NYSE: GM) announced its Q2 2026 financial results this morning, on Tuesday July 21, at 6:30 AM ET, with an investor conference call to follow at 8:30 AM ET. Prior to the publication, the consensus expected EPS of $3.13 and revenue of $45.96 billion to $47.03 billion. In each of the past four quarters, GM has beaten EPS projections, and its average EPS positive surprise was 20.25%. The average analyst price target is $95.85, far above the stock's current price of $75.67. The GM stock price on the 4H chart is below the downtrend line as well as both Exponential Moving Average indicators (EMAs). Current resistance level is $77.96. Support levels: $74.62, followed by $72.77.

What the Consensus Expected and Why That Target Was Chosen

The Zacks consensus for Q2 2026 called for EPS of $3.13 and revenue of $45.96 billion. MarketBeat consensus forecast slightly higher, for EPS of $3.17 on revenue of $47.03 billion. Both are an increase from Q2 2025's $2.53 EPS, with the Zacks estimate calling for about 23% year-over-year EPS growth. By contrast, the revenue targets called for flat to slightly lower year-over-year revenue, in light of the volume decline in the quarter, when US deliveries were down 4.2% to 714,900 vehicles. The Zacks Earnings ESP for GM is plus 5.17%, indicating that recent analyst revisions have trended higher than the consensus expectation, and with a 20.25% four-quarter average positive EPS surprise history, GM had a solid statistical base case for a beat.

The reason for that bar was set where it was for two reasons.

For one, GM has maintained pricing discipline in its truck and SUV portfolio, which protected revenue per vehicle even as volumes declined, meaning a lower volume delivery was not a proportional decline in revenue or profit. The GMC Sierra was at a new sales high in Q2. The Chevrolet Trailblazer gained 28%, and the Traverse gained 20%.

Secondly, with the Supreme Court ruling in the IEEPA case the tariff headwinds analysts were pricing in are easing, with GM already guiding a full-year adjusted EBIT of $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion in Q1 2026, including $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion of tariff costs, which was down from prior guides. A full-year guide held or raised in today's conference call, will send the clearest signal that Q2 will have produced what the consensus was expecting.

GM Digital Revenue Line Overlooked By Most Headlines

GM's digital revenue business has emerged as a material and rising component to its profitability profile and has been given far less coverage in relation to either truck profitability or EV margins. GM recognized more than $750 million in digital revenues in Q1 2026, up more than 20% year-over-year, with its deferred digital revenues reaching $5.8 billion, up more than 50%.

Management is estimating full-year 2026 recognized digital revenues of approximately $3.1 billion and deferred revenues of approximately $7.5 billion by the end of the year, with the total number of subscribers at roughly 13 million. OnStar safety and connectivity subscriptions as well as GM Super Cruise advanced driver assistance subscriptions, are the two main revenue contributors. In a high-margin, recurring revenue business, these streams have a greater influence on GM's overall profit quality than their size might indicate.

Digital revenue for Q2, another important disclosure for the 8:30 AM conference call, is a key piece to determining the trajectory of the digital revenue story for GM. Should digital revenue for the current quarter exceed $800 million, with the run rate tracking ahead of the $3.1 billion full-year estimate, management's portrayal of GM as an automotive/tech business, as opposed to simply as a carmaker, is reinforced. 

GM's Cruise pivot strategy, moving away from pure autonomous ride-hail vehicle technology to developing advanced driver assistance systems to roll out on the current product portfolio, is the catalyst behind the strategy change. The move would be much less capital intensive, while still allowing GM to monetize the rollout of the tech over a longer period of time in a subscription model, as opposed to one event with a massive autonomous payout.

GM Technical Setup: Descending Trendline, RSI Below 40, Key Levels Post-Print

On the 4H chart, GM at $75.67 is trading below both of its 50-period EMA ($77.06) and 100-period EMA ($78.26), and the price is currently under a downtrend line that has been formed from the mid-June 2026 highs.

Relative Strength Index has also dipped under 40, which indicates buying pressure is weak. The $77.96 price point, previously support, has now become resistance. A strong close over $77.96 would be the first step to the 100-EMA at $78.26, followed by $80.52.

This morning's print, especially a better-than-estimated EPS number with a raised full-year forecast, is the key catalyst required to push that higher target back into view. On the downside, a break below $74.62 would open up $72.77 and then $70.49.

GM Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Q2 2026 Consensus:

• EPS: $3.13 (+23% YoY from $2.53)
• Revenue: $45.96 billion
• Earnings ESP: +5.17%

Beat History:

• Four consecutive EPS beats
• Average positive surprise: 20.25%

Analyst Target:

• Average target: $95.85 vs current price of $75.67, for approximately 27% potential upside

Key Digital Revenue Insights:

• Q1 recognized revenue: >$750 million
• FY2026 recognized revenue target: $3.1 billion
• FY2026 deferred revenue target: $7.5 billion

Trading Signals:

• Bullish Catalyst: A confirmed close above the $77.96 former support level. Potential targets: 100-EMA at $78.26, then $80.52.
• Bearish Breakdown: A confirmed close below the $74.62 level would open the door to $72.77, followed by $70.49.

What Was Wall Street Expecting From GM’s Q2 2026 Report?

The Zacks consensus called for adjusted EPS of $3.13 and revenue of $45.96 billion. This would mean EPS rose nearly 23% year over year from Q2'25's $2.53 with revenue largely unchanged. Zacks Earnings ESP stood at plus 5.17%, showing that analysts had been raising their EPS expectations at a rate above the consensus.

GM's four-quarter average EPS surprise was at 20.25%, and this would set up a very high base case for a beat. Expect more discussion of the full-year adjusted EBIT guidance, digital revenue results, EV profitability results, and tariff cost trajectory at the 8:30 AM ET conference call.

Why Is GM’s Analyst Target So Far Above the Current Price?

GM's average analyst price target of $95.85 is up about 27% from the current price of $75.67. While GM is down about 5.3% in the past month in the overall industrial sector, many analysts covering GM have been raising and holding the line on their targets as GM has reported solid earnings in each quarter.

This bull thesis on GM was based on $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion adjusted EBIT guidance for 2026, the continued strength in North American truck and SUV margins, improving China operations, and higher and growing software revenue. The distance between the stock and the average analyst consensus target is among the largest seen during GM's recent history.

What Is GM’s Digital Revenue Business and Why Does It Matter?

GM derives its digital revenue from the sale of OnStar safety and connectivity subscriptions and Super Cruise advanced driver assistance subscriptions. Digital revenues recognized in Q1'26 exceeded $750 million with a year-over-year growth rate of more than 20%. Digital revenues deferred to future quarters stood at $5.8 billion with year-over-year growth of more than 50%. Management targets recognised digital revenues of approximately $3.1 billion for full-year 2026.

These revenues come with much better margins than vehicles. As digital revenue recognition accelerates, so will GM's overall adjusted margins. Management expects subscriber counts to reach roughly 13 million by year-end with about $7.5 billion of digital revenue that the company will start to recognize over time as the deferred revenue from these new contracts rolls in.

Bottom Line

GM reported Q2'26 results this morning at 6:30 AM ET against consensus EPS of $3.13 and revenue between $45.96 billion and $47.03 billion. With four straight beats and an average EPS surprise of 20.25%, the base case was a beat going into this report. At the 8:30 AM ET call, we'll learn more on North American operating margins, digital revenues, EV profitability, and any changes to the full-year outlook.

The average target price of $95.85 on GM stock implies about a 27% gain from the current price of $75.67. Technically, GM would need to close above $77.96 on the daily time frame to be positioned for a move to its short-term moving averages at $77 to $78. A close below $74.62 would open the door for downside to $72.77 and then $70.49.