Where Will ASML Stock Be in 5 Years?

ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) just showed investors how much demand it is sitting on. On July 15, the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker reported second-quarter results and raised its full-year outlook for the second time this year. It now expects 2026 total net sales of 43 billion to 45 billion euros, up from the 36 billion to 40 billion euros it forecast in April.

At the midpoint, that is about 35% growth over last year's 32.7 billion euros -- remarkable for a company whose machines already sit at the center of advanced chipmaking.

So, with shares up about 69% this year as of this writing, where could the growth stock realistically be five years from now?

Image source: ASML.

Demand keeps outrunning supply

ASML's second quarter itself was good. Total net sales came in at 9.3 billion euros with a gross margin of 54% -- both above the company's guidance, helped by stronger sales of services and upgrades to machines already in the field. And net income was 2.9 billion euros. Sales also grew from 8.8 billion euros in the first quarter, and first-half revenue ran about 17% ahead of the same period last year. The company also repurchased about 1.1 billion euros of its own shares during the quarter. The outlook carried the bigger news, though. ASML guided for third-quarter sales of 11 billion to 12 billion euros, and against the 9.3 billion euros it just reported, the midpoint implies more than 20% growth in a single quarter.

"Our order intake remained extremely strong in the first half of the year," said CEO Christophe Fouquet in the company's second-quarter earnings release. Customers, he said, keep accelerating their capacity plans as investments in artificial intelligence (AI) drive demand for advanced logic and memory chips.

ASML is the only company in the world that builds extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, the tools required to print the most advanced chips. So when chipmakers race to expand, the orders run straight through ASML's factory floor. And that floor is now the bottleneck. The company plans to add 30% to its 2026 low-NA EUV capacity of around 65 systems for 2027, and it is investigating another 30% increase for 2028. Its deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion capacity of around 130 systems is slated for the same treatment.

In other words, demand is not the five-year variable. ASML's ability to build machines is.

The path to 2031

A company that can only grow as fast as it can manufacture has an unusually visible path. If the 2027 expansion lands and the 2028 one follows, ASML's sales could approach double today's level before the decade ends. Add a services business that grows with every machine in the field, and the earnings power builds on itself.

The problem, as usual with great businesses, is the price. After more than doubling over the past year, the stock trades at roughly 40 times the earnings its own 2026 guidance implies -- a valuation that already prices in years of good news. ASML's order intake can be lumpy from quarter to quarter, and if customers pause to digest the capacity they are building, the multiple may compress even as the business grows.

Sure, that risk applies to nearly every AI-linked stock right now. But it matters more when the starting multiple leaves so little room for error.

If earnings compound in the high teens as capacity scales, and the multiple settles from about 40 toward something closer to 30, I think shareholders could still plausibly earn 8% to 12% annually. Starting from about $1,800 per share, 8% annual compounding puts the stock around $2,650 in five years. At 12%, it is about $3,180.

Of course, those numbers are a framework, not a forecast. A second 30% capacity expansion in 2028, or a faster ramp of ASML's newest generation of machines, could push the outcome above that range. A pause in AI infrastructure spending would likely drag it below.

My take: ASML's business will likely be dramatically bigger in five years, and I expect the stock to be higher, too. But after a 121% run, the path from here probably looks like normal compounding, not a repeat of the past 12 months. For long-term investors, that is still a business worth owning. A monopoly this central to the chip supply chain rarely goes on sale.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.