ASML Stock Price Forecast: What Is the 2026 Stock Price Trend? How High Will It Rise by 2030?
TradingKey - On July 15, Eastern Time, lithography giant ASML ( ASML) released second-quarter 2026 financial results that beat expectations and comprehensively raised its full-year 2026 guidance, driving its stock price to surge once again while igniting bullish market sentiment. However, can ASML's stock price sustain its first-half rally, and how high can it go in the future?
How Is ASML Stock Performing?
In the first half of 2026, ASML's US ADR performance was exceptionally strong, exhibiting a significant one-way upward trend with a maximum gain of up to 87%, making it one of the standout performers in the US and European tech sectors. Over the past six months, ASML's stock price movements were primarily characterized by three phases: steady climbing, sideways consolidation, and an accelerated rally.
ASML Stock Price Chart, Source: TradingView
On the first trading day of 2026, ASML gapped up from the previous year's close of $1,066.12 and climbed steadily, continuing its upward trajectory to break through the $1,500 mark by the end of February. From March to May, ASML's stock price fluctuated widely, remaining mostly within the range of $1,200 to $1,500. In June, ASML's stock price entered an accelerated rally, hitting an all-time high of $1,999.96 on the 30th of that month.
Why ASML Stock Price Is Rising?
ASML's stock price staged an exceptionally strong primary bull run in the first half of 2026. This was not speculative frenzy, but rather the AI wave driving massive demand for its products and services, steadily boosting its financial performance and supporting its stock price appreciation. The details are as follows:
Net Sales | Net Income | Gross Margin | |
Q1 2026 | 8.767 billion euros | 2.757 billion euros | 53.0% |
Q2 2026 | 9.326 billion euros | 2.918 billion euros | 54.0% |
More notably, ASML raised its guidance twice, injecting major confidence into the market. At the start of 2026, the company initially estimated full-year revenue of only 34 billion to 39 billion euros. In April, the Q1 earnings report lifted this range to 36 billion to 40 billion euros. By mid-July, the Q2 earnings report further boosted the full-year net sales guidance to 43 billion to 45 billion euros, with a gross margin expected between 54% and 56%, suggesting potentially higher profitability in the second half of the year.
Will ASML Shares Rise Further?
In its latest Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report, ASML's better-than-expected performance and guidance triggered a new round of valuation restructuring and target price hikes among Wall Street investment banks.
Institution | 12-Month Target Price | Rationale |
Bernstein | $2,623 | The most optimistic forecast in the market, believing that AI-driven EUV demand is extremely strong and that significant capacity expansion will boost long-term profits. |
BofA | $2,345 | Optimistic about the commercialization process of 2nm and below advanced nodes and High-NA EUV. |
JPMorgan | $2,200 | Capacity tightness and recovering demand for advanced nodes will continue to drive the stock price. |
Morgan Stanley | EUR 1,830 ($2,098) | Called the latest financial report a perfect "Beat and Raise," with a promising compound annual growth rate in the coming years. |
Morningstar | EUR 1,800 ($2,064) | Significantly raised the 2026-2028 sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 28%. |
Deutsche Bank | EUR 1,800 ($2,064) | Previous target EUR 1,600. Reflecting strong confidence in the semiconductor equipment recovery cycle. |
Although institutional bullish targets vary, the key drivers mainly focus on growing demand for ASML's products/services, including the explosive growth of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips, capacity expansion of Low-NA EUV lithography equipment, and the successful commercialization of High-NA EUV lithography equipment.
How High Will ASML Stock Price Rise?
Although ASML's fundamentals are excellent, the stock has already achieved impressive gains in the first half of the year, with its trailing P/E ratio currently sitting around 61.4x. At such a high valuation, the market needs to see further confirmation from third-quarter results to drive the stock price to launch a new round of gains. Prior to this, it may continue to fluctuate widely within the $1,700-$2,000 range. However, there is a high probability that ASML will break through and stand above the $2,000 mark by the end of this year.
ASML stock price chart, Source: TradingView
In the longer term, ASML's stock price is expected to rise to the $3,000 mark. As an absolute monopoly leader, no matter who wins the chip race, anyone building advanced fabs must purchase EUV equipment from ASML. This global wave of fab construction provides ASML with its most reliable money printer for the next five years. For this reason, Morningstar forecasts ASML's expected earnings per share (EPS) to reach $95 to $110 by 2030. Calculated based on its historical P/E range of 30x to 40x, this means its stock price could potentially rise to $3,000 or even higher at that time.
Conclusion
Driven by the AI wave and robust demand for HBM memory capacity expansion, ASML's stock price surged in the first half of 2026, prompting Wall Street investment banks to collectively raise their target prices. However, in the short term, the stock may fluctuate between $1,700 and $2,000 due to high valuations, but it is highly promising to firmly establish itself above the $2,000 mark by the end of this year. In the long run, supported by its absolute monopoly in equipment, the stock price is expected to break through $3,000 by 2030.
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