A SpaceX Investment Today Could Be Worth Twice as Much Within 2 Years

Now that Elon Musk's rocket and AI company is trading publicly, the natural question is how much money it can make for patient shareholders. Let me put a deliberately realistic figure on it: Two years from now, a stake in Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) could plausibly be worth roughly twice as much as it's worth today. That may sound like a modest forecast next to some of the predictions floating around online, but for a company already valued near $2 trillion, doubling would be a genuine achievement. It's also far from guaranteed; the stock has already cooled since its red-hot debut. As of midday Monday, it was back below its initial trading price for $150 and drifting down toward its offering price of $135.

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The engine isn't rockets -- it's Starlink

Though its rocket launches may provide the spectacle, the bulk of SpaceX's revenues come from Starlink, its satellite-internet service. Starlink now serves more than 10 million customers around the world, and it recently raised prices for the first time in a while, a sign the company is shifting from a land-grab growth strategy to squeezing more revenue out of the base it already has. When a business can lift prices without losing customers, it usually means that the product it's offering has become hard for those customers to live without. That pricing power, more than any rocket, is what could carry SpaceX shares higher.

The optionality that could drive a doubling

Beyond the core internet service, SpaceX has several shots on goal.

Its direct-to-cell effort already connects ordinary smartphones to satellites, bringing coverage to dead zones. The company recently showed investors a prototype of its own phone-like artificial intelligence device, hinting at a consumer-hardware ambition that would tie Starlink connectivity to the broader company's AI work. And once its giant Starship vehicle reaches the necessary level of reliability, SpaceX will be able to use it to deploy satellites far more cheaply. Any one of these bets panning out would add a new leg to the company's story, and they don't all need to work for it to move the needle.

Why a doubling is far from a sure thing

Now the sober side. Starship, the linchpin of SpaceX's plan to deploy the next generation of satellites, has been plagued by delays and setbacks, and SpaceX itself flagged it as a top risk. The launch and AI segments remain cost centers, not profit drivers, so the whole investment thesis leans heavily on Starlink continuing to execute. On top of that, its valuation of nearly $2 trillion leaves little cushion for missteps. The stock's more than 30% slide from its post-debut high shows how quickly sentiment can turn on a stock that's priced for greatness.

I think that SpaceX doubling in two years is achievable if Starlink keeps compounding and if even one of the company's other big bets pays off -- but "achievable" is not the same as "likely," and the risks are real. SpaceX is best viewed as a high-conviction, high-volatility holding rather than a sure thing.

Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.