Better Buy: SpaceX vs. Intuitive Machines

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), the aerospace and AI company founded by Elon Musk, recently became the biggest IPO in history with a $1.77 trillion valuation. As of this writing, its market cap has swelled to $2.18 trillion -- making it the world's seventh-most-valuable company.

However, SpaceX's market debut also sucked the oxygen out of the space sector. Many space stocks, which had risen in anticipation of SpaceX's IPO, quickly gave up their gains.

Image source: Getty Images.

One of those stocks was Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR), which has dropped nearly 20% since SpaceX's IPO. Should investors chase SpaceX's volatile stock right now, or should they consider Intuitive Machines' pullback to be a better buying opportunity?

The differences between SpaceX and Intuitive Machines

SpaceX generates most of its revenue from Starlink, its satellite internet service. A smaller percentage of its revenue comes from its space division, which produces its Falcon rockets, and its new AI division, which houses xAI, X, and the coding start-up Cursor.

Starlink is profitable on its own, but the losses from its space and AI divisions are wiping out its profits. It plans to ramp up its investments in those unprofitable businesses, so its bottom line will likely stay in the red for the foreseeable future.

Intuitive Machines mainly develops lunar landing and exploration vehicles for NASA. It's sent two Nova-C landers to the moon for NASA so far: IM-1 (Odysseus) in 2024 and IM-2 (Athena) in 2025. It plans to launch its third lander, IM-3, by the end of this year.

Intuitive's first two lunar missions weren't perfect (both landers eventually tipped over), but it still won additional lunar logistics and near-space network services (NSNS) contracts from NASA. It also acquired Lanteris Space Systems, a developer of satellite and space defense systems, earlier this year. It isn't profitable yet, but it could gradually expand and evolve into a more diversified space services provider.

Which company is growing faster?

In 2025, SpaceX's revenue rose 33% to $18.67 billion. But after recasting its results to account for its all-stock takeover of xAi this year, it posted a net loss of $4.94 billion. At its current market cap of $2.18 trillion, it trades at a staggering 117 times last year's sales.

But from 2025 to 2028, analysts expect SpaceX's revenue to grow at a 73.5% CAGR to $97.51 billion. They also expect it to turn profitable in 2027 and more than double its net income in 2028. That acceleration could be driven by Starlink's expansion, SpaceX's first commercial Starship launches, and the launches of its first orbital data centers.

Intuitive's revenue declined 8% to $210 million in 2025, but that was only after its revenue surged 187% in 2024. It also narrowed its net loss from $284 million in 2024 to $84 million in 2025, as it expanded its higher-margin services division and tightened spending. With a market cap of $3.7 billion, it trades at 17 times its 2025 sales.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Intuitive's revenue to grow at an 87.8% CAGR to $1.39 billion. They also expect it to turn profitable by the final year. That growth spurt should be driven by its upcoming IM missions, the gradual monetization of its NSNS contract (worth up to $4.82 billion), and new NASA contracts for the upcoming Artemis III and IV crewed missions.

Which stock is the better buy?

SpaceX's revenue growth is incredible for a company of its size, but it's heavily dependent on Starlink subsidizing its unprofitable space and AI divisions. Its bubbly price-to-sales ratio also arguably makes it a meme stock -- so it could plummet once its lockup periods start to expire.

Intuitive Machines is much smaller than SpaceX, but its business model is simpler, its stock is more reasonably valued, and it doesn't face any looming lockup expirations. So for now, I'd buy Intuitive Machines instead of SpaceX as my long-term play on the nascent space market.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intuitive Machines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.