Prediction: Bitcoin Will Hit $120,000 Before the End of the Year

With Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) down nearly 40% from its all-time high, many investors are throwing in the towel on the world's most popular cryptocurrency. Billionaire Mark Cuban, for example, recently sold most of his Bitcoin, saying it had "lost the plot."

But I think the bearish sentiment is getting overplayed right now. Bitcoin may have yet further to fall, but my prediction is that Bitcoin will rebound and hit a price of $120,000 by the end of the year. Here's why.

Reasons that Bitcoin could soar

Most importantly, Bitcoin appears to be "regaining the plot." In other words, it is once again acting as a safe store of value, amid all the heightened tensions in the Middle East. Since the Iran conflict began on Feb. 28, Bitcoin has been up a resounding 18%.

Image source: Getty Images.

In addition, many of the pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin initiatives introduced in 2025 are gaining momentum in 2026. The key initiative here is the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which President Trump signed into existence with an executive order last March. The highly anticipated reserve never delivered as planned last year, mostly because the administration could not find a way to buy Bitcoin with U.S. taxpayer funds.

But that could be changing. There's now bipartisan support behind a new piece of legislation -- the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) -- that will formally codify the reserve into law. Future administrations, even if they aren't friendly to Bitcoin, will have to accept the fact that crypto is now a growing strategic priority. As soon as the U.S. government starts buying Bitcoin in size, its price could really take off.

How likely is a price of $120,000?

Admittedly, the outlook for Bitcoin is not nearly as rosy as one would like. On the Polymarket prediction market, for example, Bitcoin has a 36% chance of hitting $100,000 this year, a 24% chance of hitting $110,000, and only a 16% chance of hitting $120,000.

In other words, Bitcoin has approximately a 1-in-6 chance of soaring 55% in value this year. However, Bitcoin has exactly the same chance of falling all the way to $30,000 this year. That tells you all you need to know about how volatile Bitcoin can be.

A price target of $120,000 might sound aggressive. But it's not nearly as aggressive as other price targets out there. For example, investment firm Bernstein is holding tight to a price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin.

Obviously, a lot needs to go right over the next six months. Bitcoin needs to "regain the plot" as a safe store of value. Congressional lawmakers need to make rapid progress on Bitcoin-friendly legislation. And institutional investors need to continue funneling money into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. If all of that happens, then Bitcoin hitting $120,000 is a no-brainer.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.