SpaceX Could Be Worth More Than Tesla the Moment It Goes Public. Here's Why.
Key Points
SpaceX is reportedly targeting a Nasdaq listing in June at a valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion.
Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet business, is the main reason the valuation has held up.
Tesla's market capitalization sits at about $1.65 trillion as of this writing.
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SpaceX is gearing up for what could be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. The rocket and satellite specialist publicly filed its S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission last week, and reports point to a Nasdaq debut under the ticker SPCX as soon as June 12. Pricing is expected the night before, with the investor roadshow kicking off in early June.
The targeted valuation: somewhere between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. That range is notable because it would put SpaceX above Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) -- the electric vehicle and energy company run by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk -- on day one. Tesla's market capitalization sits at about $1.65 trillion as of this writing.
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So how does a company that lost about $4.9 billion last year leapfrog an automaker generating more than $22 billion in quarterly revenue? The answer has less to do with rockets than with what the rockets put into orbit.
Image source: Getty Images.
Starlink is doing the heavy lifting
For all the attention focused on Starship, the part of SpaceX doing the financial heavy lifting is Starlink. The connectivity segment, which is primarily Starlink, generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 -- up nearly 50% year over year, according to the S-1. Operating income for the segment more than doubled to $4.4 billion, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) jumped 86% to roughly $7.2 billion.
Subscriber growth is similarly impressive. Today, Starlink boasts 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries, up from 8.9 million at the end of 2025, 4.4 million in 2024, and 2.3 million in 2023.
Revenue per subscriber, however, has come down -- from about $99 a month in 2023 to roughly $66 in March -- as cheaper plans and expansion into developing markets pull the average down. Still, the segment generated $3.3 billion in revenue in the first quarter alone, with $2.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Starlink, on its own, is now a major satellite business growing at an uncanny rate.
The headline net loss largely reflects something else. SpaceX's newly consolidated artificial intelligence (AI) segment, which folds in xAI following a February merger that valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion, lost $6.4 billion in 2025 and another $2.5 billion in the first quarter. SpaceX said in the S-1 that it expects to begin deploying orbital AI compute satellites "as early as 2028."
Tesla, meanwhile, is in transition
The contrast with Tesla is what makes the comparison interesting. The electric vehicle and energy company just emerged from its first year of annual revenue decline, with 2025 sales falling for the first time in its history as a public company. First-quarter results in 2026 showed revenue rising 16% to $22.4 billion, but deliveries of 358,023 missed expectations, and management told investors that capital expenditures would climb above $25 billion this year, largely to fund AI compute and upcoming products like the Cybercab.
So while Tesla is plowing record sums into projects that won't generate meaningful revenue until 2027 or later, the market is being asked to size up a SpaceX whose AI bets are similarly speculative but whose anchor business -- satellite broadband -- is already booming.
Notably, Musk cautioned during Tesla's first-quarter earnings call that the company's autonomous ride-sharing business won't be material this year. Strip that story out, and what's left is an automaker with a vehicle business that contracted in 2025 and an energy segment that posted a 12% revenue decline in the first quarter -- a dismal business for one trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 400 as of this writing.
Ultimately, this is a useful reminder that the market is already paying a heavy multiple for stories Tesla hasn't yet shipped at scale.
That same patience -- the willingness to pay up today for businesses that may take years to deliver -- is what SpaceX is asking the public to extend the moment it lists.
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Daniel Sparks has clients with positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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