MDU (MDU) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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DATE

Thursday, May 7, 2026 at 2 p.m. ET

CALL PARTICIPANTS

• President and Chief Executive Officer — Nicole A. Kivisto
• Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer — Jason L. Vollmer

TAKEAWAYS

• Reported Earnings -- Net income of $80.8 million, or $0.39 per share, with a weather-related earnings reduction of approximately $0.03 per share.
• Electric Segment Earnings -- $14.5 million compared to $15 million, with lower retail volumes from 10%-30% milder weather offsetting contributions from the first full quarter of Badger Wind Farm.
• Natural Gas Utility Earnings -- $44.2 million, down from $44.7 million, impacted by $5 million in lost earnings due to warmer weather (including 20%-30% warmer temperatures in key territories).
• Pipeline Segment Earnings -- $15.3 million versus last year’s $17.2 million, due to lower interruptible storage withdrawals, higher O&M costs, and increased property tax accruals in Montana.
• Bakken East Pipeline Project -- Open season concluded with 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of submitted interest; 40% secured under signed precedent agreements, including a $50 million/year, 10-year commitment from North Dakota.
• Bakken East Project Capital Estimate -- Projected investment of $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion, incremental to the current $3.1 billion capital plan; approximately 353 miles mainline and 21 miles lateral pipe, plus six compressor stations (three new).
• Financing Strategies -- All financing options under consideration for Bakken East, including balance sheet funding, partnerships, and other structures, with management intent to retain majority ownership.
• Data Center Electric Service Agreements -- 580 megawatts under contract, with 180 megawatts online since mid-2023 and up to 300 additional megawatts expected to come online through 2028.
• Retail Customer Credits -- Average retail customer currently receives an approximately $70 annual bill credit from the capital-light model, with a potential increase to over $200 as new data center volumes are fully ramped.
• Regulatory Developments -- Wyoming electric rate case approved (effective April 1); Montana interim rates approved for a $10.4 million increase; Idaho and Washington natural gas rates increased by $13 million and $10.8 million, respectively, with a pending $2.1 million revenue decrease in Washington and a $16.4 million requested increase in Oregon.
• Pipeline Projects -- Filed FERC Section 7(c) application for Align Section 32 with a $70 million investment targeted for late 2028 service; early-stage Minot Industrial Pipeline extended through late 2026 and included in outer capital plan years.
• Common Equity Issuance -- Settled 4.3 million shares from December 2025 forward sales, raising approximately $81.3 million in March 2026.
• Customer Growth -- Utility experienced 1.4% combined retail customer growth, within the targeted annual range of 1%-2%.
• EPS and Dividend Guidance -- 2026 earnings per share guidance reaffirmed at $0.93 to $1.00, with a long-term EPS growth rate target of 6%-8%, and an annual dividend payout ratio targeting 60%-70%.

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RISKS

• Jason L. Vollmer stated, "warmer weather impacted volumes for the quarter, resulting in approximately a $5 million impact to earnings," and identified higher O&M expenses and increased property tax accruals as drivers for reduced pipeline segment earnings.

SUMMARY

During the call, management highlighted that the Bakken East pipeline project concluded its open season with strong customer interest, and 40% of capacity under signed precedent agreements, signaling demand-pull fundamentals. Interim and approved regulatory rate cases in several territories delivered $10.4 million, $13 million, and $10.8 million in annual rate increases for Montana, Idaho, and Washington, supporting near-term revenue stability. Data center growth remains a central theme, with 580 megawatts of signed electric agreements driving incremental customer credits and influencing future investment considerations. The company completed a significant equity issuance in March, settling 4.3 million shares for $81.3 million in proceeds, strengthening its capital position for upcoming projects.

• Kivisto said, "We remain confident in our ability to execute our long-term growth strategy" as the utility pursues further regulatory filings and customer-driven capital projects.
• The Align Section 32 and Minot Industrial Pipeline projects progressed, with FERC filings and contract extensions advancing longer-term pipeline growth opportunities.
• Management confirmed, "All options are on the table as we look at ways to finance," but intends to retain a majority partnership stake if pursuing external capital.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

• Binding Open Season: A defined window during which potential pipeline customers commit to contracted capacity, used to support project development and design.
• Precedent Agreement: A legally binding contract outlining terms for future service between pipeline operators and customers, commonly required before final investment decisions.
• FERC Section 7(c) Application: A formal filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for approval to construct and operate new natural gas pipeline facilities.
• Data Center Load: The amount of electrical capacity reserved and consumed by large-scale computing facilities, increasingly influential in utility resource planning.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Nicole A. Kivisto: Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today and for your continued interest in MDU Resources Group, Inc. This morning, we reported first quarter 2026 earnings of $80.8 million, or $0.39 per share. Results reflected strong operational performance across our businesses, offset by mild winter weather impacts, which reduced earnings by approximately $0.03 per share. At the same time, rate relief and recent investments such as the Badger Wind Farm and other pipeline expansions contributed positive results, and we continue to see encouraging demand trends, including interest tied to data center development. During the quarter, we concluded our binding open season for the proposed Bakken East pipeline project with continued strong interest received.

As a reminder, we have not yet reached a final investment decision on this potential project, but we are certainly encouraged with the approximately 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of submitted interest received in the open season. Of that total, approximately 40% has been signed under precedent agreements, with additional precedent agreements in active negotiation. Included in the signed precedent agreements is a firm capacity commitment of $50 million annually for 10 years from the state of North Dakota.

With these results, we are now expecting the design of the potential project to include approximately 353 miles of 42-inch, 36-inch, and 30-inch diameter mainline pipe; approximately 21 miles of 30-inch, 24-inch, and 20-inch diameter lateral pipelines; additional compression at three existing compressor stations; and the construction of three new compressor stations. Based on these assumptions, we are projecting total capital investment for the potential project in the range of $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion, which would be incremental to our current $3.1 billion capital investment forecast. We are encouraged by the level of interest and ongoing commercial discussions that demonstrate continued demand for additional takeaway capacity from the Bakken region, which the Bakken East project could provide.

This potential project would also provide natural gas transportation service to meet growing customer demand from industrial, power generation, and local distribution companies in the region. As we look to finance a project of this size and scope, we will evaluate all options, including using our balance sheet to finance the project, pursuing potential partnerships, and various other options. Also during the quarter, we saw continued ramp of our data center load. We currently have 580 megawatts under signed electric service agreements, of which 180 megawatts has been online since mid-2023. Fifty megawatts from the second data center is currently online, with an additional 50 megawatts currently ramping online.

An additional 150 megawatts is expected online later this year, with another 100 megawatts expected online in 2027, and the remaining 50 megawatts expected online in 2028. Our current approach to serve these large-load customer opportunities is with a capital-light business model, which not only benefits our earnings and returns but also provides cost savings to our other retail customers. Currently, our average retail customer receives an approximate $70 per year credit on their bill from this approach, and we anticipate this credit to increase to potentially over $200 per year when all volumes are fully online.

We do continue to pursue additional discussions with potential data center customers, and we will provide further updates when we reach executed electric service agreements. Depending on the structure of future agreements, we would consider investing capital into new generation, substation, and transmission assets to serve the increased load. Aside from data center load, we also continue to evaluate other potential capital projects related to safely and reliably meeting existing customer demand as well as grid resiliency. On the regulatory front, we are continuing to execute on our plan of filing three to five rate cases annually and working to achieve constructive outcomes in all jurisdictions.

At our electric segment, our Wyoming rate case was approved with rates effective April 1, 2026. In our Montana case, interim rates were approved for an annual increase of $10.4 million, with rates also effective April 1, subject to refund. We also anticipate filing a general rate case in North Dakota yet this year. On a slightly separate but related note, during the quarter, the South Dakota legislature approved legislation enabling utilities to reduce wildfire risk through the submission of wildfire mitigation plans and providing associated liability protection. With this action, all four states in which we provide electric service now have wildfire mitigation and liability relief frameworks in place.

Moving on to our natural gas regulatory update, new rates from our Idaho case were effective January 1, reflecting an annual increase of $13 million. In Washington, year two rates under our approved multi-year rate plan, representing an annual increase of $10.8 million, were effective March 1, 2026. In April, we filed a revision to decrease revenue by $2.1 million annually due to forecasted capital investments that were not placed in service as of December 31, 2025. Our Oregon rate case is still pending before the Commission, where we requested an annual increase of $16.4 million.

As we look ahead, we anticipate filing another multi-year rate case in Washington this year and also plan to file a general rate case in Minnesota later in 2026. Moving on to our pipeline segment, we filed our FERC Section 7(c) application in March for our Align Section 32 expansion project, marking an important regulatory milestone in this project's development. This expansion will provide natural gas transportation service to an electric generating facility being constructed in northwest North Dakota. The project is dependent on regulatory approvals, with construction targeted to be complete in late 2028, with a total capital investment of approximately $70 million, which is included in our $3.1 billion capital plan.

We also extended the signed agreement to support the early-stage development of the potential Minot Industrial Pipeline project through late 2026. This project would be approximately a 90-mile pipeline from Iola, North Dakota, to Minot, North Dakota, and would provide incremental natural gas transportation capacity for anticipated industrial demand should we decide to proceed. This project is included in the outer years of the $3.1 billion capital plan, and we will continue to provide updates as the project progresses. Looking ahead, continued strong customer demand at our pipeline segment and progress in our utility regulatory schedule should provide opportunities to meet our long-term EPS growth rate target as we move forward.

In addition, our utility experienced combined retail customer growth of 1.4% when compared to this time last year, which is within our targeted annual growth rate of 1% to 2%. This demand and growth provide investment opportunity for customer-driven growth projects at our pipeline and in our utility infrastructure. I am proud of our employees whose dedication to our core strategy continues to drive our business to deliver exceptional performance and positions MDU Resources Group, Inc. with compelling long-term growth prospects. Despite the mild weather headwinds experienced in the first quarter, we are affirming our 2026 earnings per share guidance range of $0.93 to $1.00 per share.

We remain confident in our ability to execute our long-term growth strategy and believe our operational focus and financial strength continue to position us well for delivering safe and reliable energy, customer value, and strong stockholder returns. We also continue to anticipate a long-term EPS growth rate of 6% to 8%, while targeting a 60% to 70% annual dividend payout ratio. As always, MDU Resources Group, Inc. is committed to operating with integrity and with a focus on safety. We remain dedicated to delivering value as a leading energy provider and employer of choice. I will now turn the call over to Jason for a financial update. Jason?

Jason L. Vollmer: Thank you, Nicole. This morning, we announced first quarter earnings of $80.8 million, or $0.39 per share, compared to first quarter 2025 earnings of $82 million, or $0.40 per share. As Nicole mentioned in her opening comments, milder weather had an approximate impact of $0.03 per share on a consolidated basis for the quarter. Turning to our individual businesses, our electric utilities reported first quarter earnings of $14.5 million compared to $15 million for the same period in 2025.

The first full quarter of the Badger Wind Farm being in service was a benefit in the quarter but was more than offset by lower retail sales volumes from 10% to 30% milder weather across our service territory, which impacted earnings results by approximately $2 million when compared to 2025. Our natural gas utility reported earnings of $44.2 million in the first quarter compared to $44.7 million in 2025.

Similar to our electric results, warmer weather impacted volumes for the quarter, resulting in approximately a $5 million impact to earnings compared to last year, including temperatures 20% warmer in Idaho, 30% warmer in Montana, and 10% to 30% warmer across the rest of our service territory when compared to the prior year. Weather normalization mechanisms in certain states helped offset the warmer temperatures experienced in the quarter. Largely offsetting the lower volumes was rate relief in Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. The pipeline reported earnings of $15.3 million compared to first quarter record earnings of $17.2 million last year.

The decreased earnings were driven by lower interruptible natural gas storage withdrawals, along with higher operation and maintenance expense primarily due to increased material costs and payroll-related expenses. Higher Montana property tax accruals also contributed to the decrease in earnings. Partially offsetting the impacts was strong customer demand for short-term natural gas transportation contracts as well as contributions from the Minot expansion project placed in service late last year. Finally, MDU Resources Group, Inc. continues to maintain a strong balance sheet and has ample access to working capital to finance our operations through our peak seasons.

In connection with the company's December 2025 follow-on equity offering, a portion of the related forward sales agreements were settled in March 2026, resulting in the issuance of 4.3 million shares of new common stock for proceeds of approximately $81.3 million. That summarizes the financial highlights for the quarter. We appreciate your interest in MDU Resources Group, Inc., and we will now open the call for questions. Operator?

Operator: We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Hey, team. Thank you very much for the time, and, again, congratulations. Just really great outcomes here of late, so kudos to you. If I could kick it off here, it is just a remarkable backdrop. I wanted to talk a little bit more about this 40% signed in a precedent agreement relative to the remaining 60%. I know you talk about a $3 billion-plus number here now, but just kind of backing that with customers, investors have been really focused on that today. Can you talk a little bit about the timeline to really zip that up, if you will?

Nicole A. Kivisto: Yes, and thank you, Julien, for the question. As we think about where we are today, maybe we will just take a step back. When we entered into the binding open season from the start, what ended up showing up, and what we reported today, is what we expected. We feel really encouraged in terms of where we are and our initial expectations on the overall project. In terms of the 40%, we are very encouraged that we have 40% of that under signed precedent agreements as of this date. As we mentioned on the call and in the earnings release, we are in active negotiations on the remaining interest.

We believe we have agreed in large part to many of the key business terms with these remaining customers, but we will continue to work through those. In terms of the overall next steps following that, as we move forward with executing the remaining agreements, the next step is to finalize design based on what shows up there, and then work with our board on a final investment decision. As you know, we did pre-file this project with FERC in December. In that filing, we laid out a schedule that would indicate that we would file the Section 7 application in the third quarter of this year. I am comfortable with the schedule to date.

Certainly both WBI and our potential customers hope to reach an FID as soon as practical.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Got it. So you feel pretty good about getting it done if you are still on track with that third-quarter target timeline, I suspect. Maybe if I can follow this up real quickly here. How do you think about laterals here, whether it is Ellendale or, frankly, other potential customers? And related to that, as far as laterals go, how do you think about the gas strategy perhaps leading an electric or electric gas generation strategy on the utility side as well? I appreciate what you are doing and the expanding scope with this pipeline, but how do you think about that marrying up with what you have on the utility front at the same time?

What do you think about the laterals or actually building gas generation? I will note your comments in the remarks about being capital light thus far. How do you think about that being more capital intensive, prospectively?

Nicole A. Kivisto: There are a couple of questions packed in there. I will take them in the order that I heard them. On the utility, our method has really been to come forward to the market when we have signed ESAs. We did talk today that we continue conversations with others. Noting those conversations, we also leaned into the fact that we may consider changing that strategy a bit and leaning into some investment. More to follow in terms of those final decisions being made, but we are continuing to discuss with potential customers the ability to serve them from a large-load perspective.

As it relates to the pipeline, one of the things we have talked about that is beneficial for our company is, as we think about the data center theme and that buildout, whether our utility can serve that or not is obviously some upside, but the pipeline has the opportunity to serve that whether the utility would be the provider of that data center or not. So, as you are referencing our proposed Bakken East pipeline, we continue to think about how to serve some of that data center load, but even if we do not, it still is a benefit to the overall potential project at large.

The theme of data center development is certainly a benefit on both sides of our business, whether that be the utility or the pipeline. On laterals, as we finalize our precedent agreements with our customers, we will keep those in mind. What we have seen across the country is once these pipelines become announced, to the extent we get to a final investment decision, other opportunities may come forward. We will be thinking about that also. It looks like, Jason, you might want to add something here.

Jason L. Vollmer: Thanks, Nicole, for that lead-in. You mentioned specifically the Ellendale lateral, Julien, as part of your question. If you look at the updated map, you will not see that lateral built into that map. As we think about the open season process, we did not get interest at that location. We are delivering gas to that site, but the volumes we are seeing on the initial pipe compared to what we had expected going into the open season showed up along the mainline and get us to the same point along the way. We will see additional laterals develop over time off of this pipe, should we decide to proceed.

It is a good growth platform going forward, but that Ellendale lateral is currently not contemplated in the design and the new map you would see today.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Right. So the current CapEx budget does not necessarily include, and could be upsized yet again in the context of any laterals, it would seem. But quickly, Jason, while you have the mic, with respect to financing this, this is an incredibly big bite now that you are contemplating. How do you think about financing this? Are there partnerships? Are there sell-downs to get this done?

Jason L. Vollmer: I appreciate the question, Julien. We have been clear with the market that we would provide a range once we had more clarity around the size, scope, and design of the project. By coming out with a range today, we have a much better view. It is a very large number, especially considering our current capital plan of $3.1 billion without this project included. This would be a significant addition. All options are on the table as we look at ways to finance this. A FERC-regulated project with contracted demand for a long period of time will have a lot of ways of getting financing done, whether that is doing it ourselves, incorporating partnerships, or various other structures.

Our primary focus is to find an option that provides the best return for our shareholders over the long term, and also gives us the ability to have a majority stake in this project that will be connected to our existing system. It is very important that we would sit in a majority partnership if we go down the partnership path.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Absolutely. Thank you very much. Best of luck.

Operator: As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press 1 to raise your hand. Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Michael Levine with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Ryan Michael Levine: Regarding the Montana rate case, any color around if you are still pursuing a settlement there given the deadline is coming up later this week?

Jason L. Vollmer: Thanks, Ryan. I can take that one. On the Montana rate case, we are encouraged that interim rates were approved and went into effect on April 1, subject to refund until we get through the actual rate case process. As of right now, we have a hearing scheduled for July, or later this summer, for the next steps. Typically, we look for potential settlements along the way where we can, and we will continue to be in discussions on that. Nothing further to state here other than that a settlement would be something we would be open to, but we are proceeding to the next hearing date and will continue to update once we find out more.

Ryan Michael Levine: In terms of the Bakken East more broadly, given crude price evolution as negotiations continued and the potential increase in associated gas production from the region, how is that impacting your contracting conversations from the supply side, and any incremental opportunities that could enable?

Jason L. Vollmer: Great question. Market dynamics are interesting right now in the commodity space. All of the interest we have talked about with the Bakken East project has been demand pull. This is industrial customers, power generation, and LDCs—not driven by supplier push. I certainly think this is a project that will have interest from suppliers once it is in service, but we are not relying on supplier push to get to the volumes we are talking about here today. This is all demand pull.

Ryan Michael Levine: In the cost estimate outlined in your slides, what are the key variables that push you to the higher or lower end of that range?

Jason L. Vollmer: The construction period is in the 2029–2030 timeframe for the first in-service in late 2029 and the second phase in late 2030. We have not reached our final decision yet, so we have not locked up contractors. There could be variability in labor as we progress. Steel prices have been moving a bit. We wanted a range that could encapsulate some of that. We now have a better view from the customer demand side regarding where facilities would be located and interconnect with their projects. We have approximately 97% of the route with permission to survey. We are in a good spot from that perspective.

The remaining uncertainty is around locking in steel prices for the pipe itself, ordering compression to understand costs, and finalizing labor for construction. There are variables until we get those locked down. We wanted a range to help the market understand the size and scope of how exciting this project can be, while being thoughtful that things can move around a bit before we lock it down.

Ryan Michael Levine: Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Nicole A. Kivisto: Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Aiden Kelly with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Aiden Kelly: Hey, thanks for the time today. I want to pick up on the Bakken East project from a different angle. Could you talk about the data center opportunities on top of what you have already been discussing on the pipeline—specifically, the power plants to be built off laterals in certain towns? Are conversations occurring with large-load customers around this opportunity?

Nicole A. Kivisto: Yes, certainly. One of the things to think about, as Jason mentioned, is the scope of what showed up in the binding open season and those with signed precedent agreements is demand pull. What is in that number? Some of that is power generation. A piece of what is showing up is power generation to serve potential data centers. Your question goes beyond that, in terms of the utility working with some of these customers or whether there could be additional power generation that shows up after we make a final investment decision on this pipeline. That is yet to be seen in terms of where those things land.

Where we are today, this is a demand-pull project, and there is power generation showing up within the binding open season.

Aiden Kelly: Separately, on the equity side, it is a big CapEx project and you mentioned potential partnership opportunities. Could you comment on the extent you see that as a possibility? And if so, how should we think about that—another utility or a private equity arrangement? Any thoughts on your appetite to partner up?

Jason L. Vollmer: Thanks. As I mentioned earlier, all options are on the table as we think about financing a project of this size and scope, given how significant this project could be for the company. Right now, the team is focused on getting to a final investment decision. That is the primary focus—getting the remaining precedent agreements executed and getting to a position where we can get in front of our board on an FID. If we decide to go down the partnership path, we will step back and look at what makes the most sense for shareholders over the long term. A strategic partner could have a fit, and financial partners would likely have appetite too.

We will analyze it carefully to determine what makes the most long-term sense for our shareholders for what would be a very long-lived and important project for the company, should we decide to proceed.

Aiden Kelly: Great. Appreciate the insight. Thanks for the time. I will leave it there.

Nicole A. Kivisto: Thank you.

Operator: There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Nicole A. Kivisto, President and CEO, for closing remarks.

Nicole A. Kivisto: Thank you again for joining us today and for your thoughtful questions. We appreciate your continued interest in and support of MDU Resources Group, Inc. As we move through the remainder of 2026, we remain focused on disciplined execution of our capital plan, constructive regulatory engagement, and delivering safe, reliable, and affordable energy for our customers. Finally, I want to thank all of our employees for their dedication and commitment. We look forward to staying engaged with you throughout the year. Operator, you may now conclude the call.

Operator: This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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