Where Will NuScale Power (SMR) Stock Be in 5 Years?

NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), a developer of small modular reactors (SMRs), went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) four years ago. It started trading at $10.70 per share, set a record high of $53.43 last October, but now trades at $12. Let's see why this stock was so volatile -- and if it will head higher over the next five years.

Why were investors excited about NuScale?

NuScale's SMRs, which are much smaller than conventional nuclear reactors, can be installed in vessels that are only 65 feet tall and nine feet wide. They're prefabricated and assembled on-site to reduce the time, labor, and costs required to construct a nuclear power plant.

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NuScale is the only SMR maker that holds Standard Design Approvals (SDAs) from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The NRC approved its 50 MWe design in 2023 and its 77 MWe design in 2025. It's been working with Fluor (NYSE: FLR) to deploy six of its 77 MWe reactors in a single unit to construct a 462 MWe plant for Romania's RoPower.

By comparison, a conventional nuclear reactor typically generates more than 1,000 MWe. NuScale's smaller, modular SMRs enable nuclear power plants to be deployed in remote areas and other places that aren't well-suited for full-sized nuclear reactors.

Why did investors lose interest in NuScale?

NuScale originally planned to deploy its first SMRs for RoPower in 2027 and 2028. But it subsequently postponed that launch date to 2030, and some analysts don't expect it to fire up its first reactors until 2033-2034. The company recently agreed to deploy up to six gigawatts of its SMR capacity across seven states for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). Still, the first reactors from that project won't come online until 2032.

That's why it wasn't surprising when Fluor, which owned over half of NuScale's shares before its SPAC merger, recently liquidated all of its remaining shares. Its insiders were also net sellers of its stock over the past 12 months, and they didn't buy a single share over the past three months. That chilly insider sentiment indicates its near-term upside is limited.

Where will NuScale's stock be in five years?

Over the next five years, NuScale will continue to generate most of its revenue from front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies, licensing fees, and consulting work rather than from commercial deployments of its SMRs. However, that business is still booming.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect its revenue to more than quadruple from $76 million to $321 million as its SMRs attract more interest, but it will remain deeply unprofitable. If it matches analysts' estimates, grows its revenue at a 30% CAGR through 2031, and trades at 30 times its current year's sales by the final year, its stock would nearly quintuple over the next five years. Therefore, NuScale could still have significant upside -- but a few more delays or blunders could easily deflate its valuations and crush its stock.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.