Why This May Be This Week's Most Important Earnings Report for Investors to Watch

With earnings season shifting into high gear, some investors may be looking for clues about the health of the U.S. consumer. On this note, I believe one of the most important reports to watch this week comes from American Express (NYSE: AXP).

The credit card network and lender is scheduled to report its first-quarter results for 2026 on Thursday, April 23.

Given its premium customer base and massive reach, the company's numbers may provide valuable insight into whether more affluent shoppers are still opening their wallets or starting to pull back.

Image source: Getty Images.

2 telling metrics

When American Express reports its results, the most scrutinized metric will likely be total billed business, which represents the volume of cardholder spending across its network. This key metric advanced 9% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching about $445 billion. That growth rate held steady with the 9% expansion seen in the third quarter, suggesting consumer spending remained resilient through the end of the year.

But investors will be eager to see if that momentum carried into the early months of 2026.

Beyond overall spending, investors will likely check on the trajectory of the company's card fees. American Express's shift toward wealthy, fee-paying customers has morphed into a structural earnings driver.

In the fourth quarter, net card fee revenue grew to $2.6 billion, up 17% year over year.

During the company's fourth-quarter earnings call in January, CEO Stephen Squeri highlighted that membership fees are a key driver of its business, noting that card fee growth has risen at a year-over-year rate in the double digits for 30 straight quarters.

A generational shift

Further, the company continues to lean on younger cohorts to drive its volume.

Spending from millennials and Generation Z (Gen Z) has solidified its place as a primary growth engine for American Express. In Q4, U.S. consumer services billed business from Gen Z rose 38% year over year, and from millennials rose 12%, significantly outpacing other age demographics.

But acquiring these customers is not cheap.

The company poured $6.3 billion into marketing expenses over the course of 2025.

Investors will want to ensure that this heavy spending continues to translate into profitable membership growth rather than just a temporary bump in sign-ups.

Credit quality and guidance

As a lender, American Express is not immune to the realities of a shifting economic landscape. While the company continues to shine when it comes to credit quality, it's still something investors should monitor. The company's net write-off rate ticked up to 2.1% in Q4, compared to 1.9% in the prior quarter. While this is still healthy by historical standards, any unexpected acceleration in write-offs or delinquencies during the first quarter could spook investors.

Despite these minor credit normalization trends, management seemed confident in the year ahead when it announced its fourth-quarter results. It guided for 2026 revenue growth of 9% to 10%. As for profitability, management forecast earnings per share for the full year to land between $17.30 and $17.90. The midpoint of this range represents 14.4% year-over-year growth.

Additionally, the board recently authorized a 16% dividend increase.

Deserving of a premium valuation

Even though the stock is down about 11% year to date, shares aren't exactly cheap. Shares trade at about 21 times earnings -- a premium valuation for a lender, but a well-deserved one given American Express's earnings momentum.

A valuation like this suggests investors largely expect the company to continue on the same trajectory it was growing at in Q4. So any meaningful slowdown could lead to a sell-off in the stock.

Chances are, the company's first-quarter report will look solid. American Express has proven its resilience time and again, effectively navigating varying economic environments. But with expectations high and given the current geopolitical environment, Thursday morning's report could see extra scrutiny.

American Express is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Daniel Sparks and his clients hav no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.