Will There Ever Be Another Dogecoin or Shiba Inu?

Every investor who watched crypto in 2021 remembers the gobsmacked feeling of seeing Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) explode from a fraction of a cent to $0.73 in just a few months, or hearing that Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) had accomplished a similarly reality-breaking feat despite playing second fiddle.

Given the returns involved, it's no surprise that those stories still make people wonder whether they missed something irreplaceable, or if the next big meme coin is right around the corner. Let's answer both of those questions.

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Another parabolic meme coin is a near-certainty

Creating a new token is now cheap, quick, and easy, unlike during the era of Dogecoin and Shiba Inu's greatest hits. Platforms like Pump.fun on Solana let anyone launch a new meme coin in minutes, and thousands of new meme tokens are launched daily. Nearly all of those coins go to zero, but the point is that raw materials for a new meme coin frenzy aren't scarce.

What is scarce at the moment are the other ingredients Dogecoin and Shiba Inu enjoyed during their parabolic runs, specifically exceptional timing (people were trapped inside during the COVID-19 pandemic) and massive amounts of liquidity sloshing around the financial system.

Nonetheless, those conditions are guaranteed to recur on a long enough timescale, like they somewhat did in 2024's meme coin boom. Even if it might not be right around the corner, central banks will eventually cut rates and boost liquidity, investors will have an excess of disposable income such that burning money on buying meme coins appears appealing, and a highly speculative financial environment will return, almost certainly during the tail end of an intense bull market.

When that all happens in the same time frame, the pattern will repeat. For those who nibble on these coins, it won't be a good investment.

Knowledge won't help you profit

Even if you're certain the next parabolic meme coin exists, knowing how to spot a crypto pump-and-dump won't protect you if you buy Shiba Inu or Dogecoin. Nor will it help you if you decide to dabble in any one of the myriad number of newer meme coins -- which, by the way, you should never purchase.

For every Dogecoin that temporarily rivaled major corporations by market cap, tens of thousands of imitators evaporate within weeks. Survivorship bias makes the winners look inevitable in hindsight, but they weren't identifiable in advance because meme coins typically have no mechanisms to differentiate from each other or produce any value. Shiba Inu's absurd returns were available for roughly one year to people who bought it at close to zero and sold near the top, a feat almost nobody accomplished, and a feat that nobody can reliably replicate with other coins.

The more common experience is buying after the excitement starts then holding through the crash because selling feels like defeat.

The rational response to these lotteries isn't to buy more tickets. It's to avoid playing a losing game. The next Dogecoin or Shiba Inu will appear someday, but it shouldn't matter to you if you're a serious investor. Instead, consider a more established stock that stands to benefit from the increased adoption across all cryptocurrencies.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.