SpaceX vs. Rocket Lab: Which One Will Dominate the Next Decade?
Key Points
SpaceX generated $18.5 billion in revenue and $8 billion in EBITDA in 2025, while upstart Rocket Lab posted $602 million in revenue and was still operating at a loss.
At a price-to-sales ratio of 108, SpaceX would debut at nearly double the valuation of Rocket Lab's already-elevated 67 P/S ratio -- leaving investors with questions.
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SpaceX just filed for what could be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history at a $2 trillion valuation. When it hits the market, it will undoubtedly be the hottest space stock around. So how does it compare with the much smaller Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), the market's current hot commodity? Both want to dominate the space economy over the next decade. Who will?
SpaceX vs. Rocket Lab: How the numbers stack up
SpaceX generated roughly $18.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with Starlink alone pulling in more than $10 billion. The combined company, which now includes xAI and X (formerly Twitter), generated roughly $8 billion in EBITDA.
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Rocket Lab has a market cap of $37 billion. It posted $602 million in revenue in 2025, up 38% year over year. The company says it has a $1.85 billion backlog, but it's still operating in the red, with a negative EBITDA.
Here's how the numbers stack up.
| Company | Revenue | EBITDA | Market Capitalization | Price to Sales Ratio (P/S) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | $18.5 billion | $8.0 billion | $2.0 trillion | 108 |
| Rocket Lab | $602.0 million | ($185.5 million) | $40.6 billion | 67 |
Which space stock is the better buy?
While these companies are competitors, their businesses diverge considerably. Rocket Lab is more of a pure-play space stock, while SpaceX includes an artificial intelligence arm, a social media platform, and still more.
Image source: Getty Images.
At this point, there's no question that SpaceX dominates. That's unlikely to change materially over the next decade. That being said, Rocket Lab's upcoming Neutron rocket will better compete with SpaceX's larger offerings at a lower cost.
Rocket Lab stock is far from cheap, to be sure, but it's half the price of SpaceX and has more space to grow. That's why I think, between the two, it's the better choice.
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Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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