US Dollar: JOLTS openings seen retreating – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists expect US JOLTS job openings to fall to 7.0 million in June from 7.594 million in May, below the 7.504 million consensus forecast, as the recent increase appears difficult to sustain. They expect the data to move closer to softer private-sector hiring indicators. This would contrast with July’s stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing reading, which rose to 55.6 from 53.3 and reached its highest level since mid-2022.

JOLTS expected to retreat as manufacturing activity accelerates

"We expect June JOLTS job openings will decline back down to 7,000k from 7,594k in May (cons: 7,504k). The recent surge in openings is likely unsustainable. We expect JOLTS will begin moving back towards private sector indicators like Indeed, which shows a more subdued trend in hiring."

"ISM manufacturing exceeded consensus expectations, jumping to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June (TD: 54.7, cons: 53.9), the highest level since mid-2022."

"Large increases in production, employment, and supplier deliveries were the drivers behind the topline beat. Inventories was the only component that posted a decline."

"Prices paid fell close to 2pts to 71.1 — largely undoing its post-war increase, despite oil prices moving higher on net in July."

"AI and defense industry demand were the main drivers of optimism among respondent comments. Already-strained supply chains from the Iran conflict could find it difficult to keep up. Respondents continue to voice concerns about geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs, all while dealing with changing tariff polices."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)