China: Oil shock seen contained – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect robust external demand to support China’s April industrial production and trade, even as services and construction soften. They see higher Oil prices lifting PPI and energy CPI, while headline CPI stays at 1% year-on-year. Fixed asset investment is projected to remain subdued, with modest improvements in retail sales and credit growth.

External demand offsets domestic softness

"China’s official April manufacturing PMI stayed high at 50.3."

"Meanwhile, the services PMI fell below 50 and the construction PMI declined to a six-year low of 48, indicating soft domestic demand and still-subdued housing market activity."

"Amid still-strong global demand for AI and semiconductor-related products, industrial production (IP) growth likely accelerated to 6.2% y/y and export growth to 12% y/y."

"Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth may have remained stable at 1.6% y/y in 4M-2026, supported by solid equipment manufacturing and infrastructure investment."

"While pass-through of the sharp rise in international energy prices to the domestic market was alleviated by policy measures, China’s energy CPI inflation likely rose last month, offsetting the drop in food CPI and keeping headline CPI inflation at 1% y/y."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)