Taiwan: Growth momentum and LNG risks – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying upgrades Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 9.4% from 7.0%, citing stronger-than-expected AI-driven exports and resilient ICT demand. The report notes robust first-quarter GDP and expects quarterly growth to moderate later in 2026. It also highlights LNG supply constraints, higher energy costs, and potential power rationing as key macro risks.

AI-led boom faces energy constraints

"We revise up Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 9.4% from 7.0%, which would mark the strongest expansion since the post-GFC rebound in 2010."

"The AI-driven global hardware cycle is expected to remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continuing to support demand for semiconductors, servers, and broader ICT exports."

"On a quarterly basis, GDP growth is likely to have peaked in 1Q and to gradually moderate thereafter."

"Non-ICT exports are likely to face increasing headwinds from a broader global demand slowdown."

"LNG supply remains a key structural constraint."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)