JPMorgan forecasts Bitcoin to outshine Gold in second half of 2025

JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, reported that Bitcoin could outperform gold in the year’s second half. The analysts argued that the digital asset will gain ground against gold, driven by rising corporate demand and growing support from U.S. states.

After Bitcoin and gold rose in tandem last year as hedges against currency depreciation, both assets are no longer moving in sync. JPMorgan analysts believe the two assets have entered a zero-sum phase in 2025, with gains in one increasingly coming at the other’s expense. The analysts noted a reversal in capital flow in recent months.

JPMorgan says BTC could outperform gold in the second half of 2025

JPMorgan says Bitcoin could outperform gold in the second half of 2025

When gold tops, Bitcoin explodes pic.twitter.com/8yRUOxEB76

— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) May 15, 2025

JPMorgan analysts revealed that Bitcoin will likely outperform gold in the second half of the year, driven by corporate buying and growing support from U.S. states. 

They also noted that the debasement trade—where investors buy gold and BTC to hedge against weakening fiat currencies—lifted both assets late last year. The analysts said the trade has stalled this year and turned into a zero-sum game, with one asset rising at the expense of the other.

“Between mid-February and mid-April, gold was rising at the expense of Bitcoin, while over the past three weeks, we have been observing the opposite, i.e., Bitcoin rising at the expense of gold.”

-Nikolas Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director at JPMorgan.

Since April 22, gold has plummeted nearly 8%, while the virtual currency has gained 18%. The analysts argued that investor flows reflect the shift, with capital moving out of gold ETFs and flowing into Bitcoin. The same can be reflected in the futures data, with gold positions decreasing and BTC positions increasing.

JPMorgan analysts also noted that the crypto derivatives market is growing as well. U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges have acquired major platforms, with Coinbase buying Deribit, Kraken acquiring NinjaTrader, and Gemini obtaining a license to offer derivatives across Europe. The analysts believe these developments could boost more institutional participation in the crypto space as regulation brings added confidence.

The softening gold prices and the crypto-specific drivers have led JPMorgan analysts to see more upside for Bitcoin in the second half of the year. At the time of publication, the digital asset is exchanging hands at $103,425, a 2.11% increase in the last seven days. Gold is currently trading at 3,222, a 2.62 drop in the past five days.

JPMorgan says crypto-specific catalysts will cause BTC to outshine gold

Panigirtzoglou added that the firm expects the year-to-date zero-sum game between gold and BTC to extend to the remainder of the year. JPMorgan analysts also acknowledged that they were biased towards crypto-specific catalysts, creating bullish momentum for Bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year. 

Firms like Strategy and Metaplanet have doubled down on their BTC holdings. Strategy plans to raise $84 billion for Bitcoin purchases by 2027 and is already hitting 32% of that target.

Metaplanet also reported on May 14, its strongest quarter to date for Q1 FY2025. The firm’s digital asset holdings jumped to 6,796 BTC, a 3.9x increase year-to-date, and over 5,000 BTC were added in 2025. 

Metaplanet experienced a temporary 7.4 billion yen valuation loss from a Bitcoin price dip in March, but the company still bounced back with 13.5 billion yen in unrealized gains as of May 12. The firm’s BTC net asset value has skyrocketed by 103.1x since adopting the Bitcoin Treasury Standard, and its market cap has also grown 138.1x.

Several U.S. states are warming up to Bitcoin, with New Hampshire now permitting up to 5% of its reserves in Bitcoin. Arizona also launched a Bitcoin reserve and pledged not to raise taxes this year. The analysts noted that, as the list of states grows with other U.S. states potentially considering adding BTC to their strategic reserves, it could be a sustained positive catalyst for the digital asset.

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