Bitcoin Price Forecast: Hawkish Fed Signals Weigh, September PCE in Focus; Can Bitcoin Hold $80,000?

TradingKey - On October 29, following the Fed's October decision, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) weakened again. As of today's Asian trading session, the price of Bitcoin dropped below the $80,000 mark once more, steadily retreating from near $81,300 to an intraday low of around $79,700, with intraday losses briefly approaching 2%. Previously, Bitcoin rebounded for two consecutive trading days but failed to effectively break above $82,000, making the vicinity of $80,000 a key short-term battleground once again.

Bitcoin daily price chart, Source: TradingView

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, in line with market expectations. However, the policy statement continued to emphasize that inflation "remains elevated," while upgrading its assessment of U.S. economic activity from "solid" to "strong." The decision passed with a 10-2 vote, with both dissenting members advocating an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike.

The Fed did not send clear easing signals, leaving market expectations intact for another rate hike in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting remains as high as 78.4%. Following the release of the interest rate decision, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly rose back above 5%. Higher risk-free yields typically increase the opportunity cost of holding risk assets such as Bitcoin, which also constrained Bitcoin's previous rebound near $80,000.

Looking at recent price action, after rapidly falling back from above $84,000 on October 22, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested $80,000. Intraday prices fell below $80,000 on October 24, 26, and 27, but buying support emerged each time. Losing this mark again today indicates that the market has not yet formed a sustained upside breakout.

In the short term, $80,000 remains one of Bitcoin's most important psychological levels. If the price continues to trade below this level, the market will continue to test recent lows around $79,000. If that level fails to hold, Bitcoin's price could retreat further toward support near $75,000; conversely, if it reclaims $80,000 and breaks above $82,000, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $87,000 on the upside once again.

Notably, the U.S. September PCE inflation data to be released today will affect market expectations for the Fed's December policy path and may determine Bitcoin's short-term trajectory.