Bitcoin Heads for a Red October With 4 Bullish Signals Still Intact

Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for a second straight losing October, down 4.10% since the month began. Yet 4 signals across price, positioning, on-chain data, and macro still lean bullish.

Galaxy and Santiment see signs of a bottom, while Glassnode data shows recent buyers have cooled off. Bitcoin’s November record, however, gives reason for caution.

Bitcoin Keeps Its Grip on the 50-Week Average

The price has slipped since BeInCrypto flagged 4 problems facing Bitcoin in early October. Its long-term chart structure, however, has held.

Galaxy research head Alex Thorn reads the 200-week average as Bitcoin’s bear-market floor and the 50-week as its ceiling. Bitcoin tested the floor in June and reclaimed the ceiling in September after 44 weeks below it.

At $79,935, BTC trades about 5% above the current 50-week average of $75,812.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Galaxy examined 4 previous reclaims following periods of at least 20 weeks below the 50-week average. In each case, Bitcoin never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level during the following year.

“Our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” the post read.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

The Fast Money Has Already Left the Room

Galaxy’s data also shows who sold during the downturn. Asset managers’ net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of Bitcoin’s all-time high.

Nine investment firms, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, reduced their reported spot Bitcoin ETF holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC-equivalent between September 2025 and June 2026. 

Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low.

Recent Buyers Cool Off as Retail Heads for the Exit

While large funds have pulled back, on-chain data tracks the smaller buyers. Glassnode says about 70% of short-term holder supply sits in profit, down from almost all in late September.

“For buyers who expect the uptrend to continue, that makes this a considerably better entry than a month ago,” the firm said.

Bitcoin has also lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, per Santiment. The firm reads that exit as a possible bottom signal.

“Retail capitulation has historically been more constructive for price than a sudden flood of new buyers chasing rallies,” it noted.

Bitcoin Total Non-Empty Wallets. Source: X/Santiment

Washington’s Debt Pile Builds the Long-Term Case

The fourth signal sits outside crypto markets. US federal debt reached $40.44 trillion on October 20, and fiscal 2026 closed with a $1.99 trillion deficit.

Galaxy argues that refinancing such a large debt load at interest rates near 5% could increase pressure on policymakers to tolerate inflation, potentially strengthening the case for fixed-supply assets such as Bitcoin. 

That pressure plays out over years, however, so it offers little guidance on near-term price moves.

November’s Strong Record Comes With a Catch

Bitcoin’s own history adds the main counterweight. November has closed higher in 63% of years since 2010, with a median gain of 10.26%, Coinglass data shows.

However, November rose in only 2 of the 5 years that followed a red October. Last year, a 3.95% October loss preceded a 17.49% November drop. 

Bitcoin Monthly Returns From 2010 to 2026. Source: Coinglass

Santiment says a sustained break below $79,000 would delay its bottom signal. A reclaim near $82,500 would strengthen it.

The October close, now 4 days away, will show which side of that range Bitcoin holds.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights