Ethereum Whales Buy the Bottom as ETF Inflows Return: Is $2,438 Next?

Ethereum (ETH) whales keep adding to their holdings while the price trades near $1,963, up 4.3% in the last 24 hours. Three separate datasets now point to an accumulation two weeks after ETH broke its long-term descending trendline.

Glassnode data shows growing whale addresses, and US spot ETF flows have turned positive. However, one metric still refuses to confirm the recovery.

Ethereum Whales Grow Their Ranks at Yearly Lows

Glassnode’s whale address count tracks wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH. The metric bottomed near 4,750 addresses in early June and has since climbed toward 4,850.

Meanwhile, the 30-day change has stayed positive through most of July. This suggests sustained accumulation rather than a short-lived spike.

The timing separates this move from October 2025. Back then, Ethereum whales spiked while ETH traded near its record high, and the rally reversed soon after. This time, large holders are buying close to yearly lows.

Fresh wallets also bought 50,000 ETH in mid-July as the ETH/BTC ratio jumped 6%. A flip of the 30-day change back below zero would weaken the signal.

ETF Inflows Return After 8 Weeks of Outflows

Institutional flows tell a similar story. US spot Ethereum ETF net flows flipped positive in July after roughly eight weeks dominated by outflows.

The funds have now recorded a third straight week of inflows, adding $103.9 million in the week ending July 24. Green bars have dominated the Glassnode flow chart throughout the month.

Still, the scale remains modest. Daily inflows sit in the tens of millions, far below the $600 million to $1 billion days of August 2025. Institutional demand is returning, not surging.

A return of sustained daily outflows would flip this signal back to bearish.

Active Addresses Remain the Missing Piece

Network activity complicates the bullish setup. The 14-day moving average of Ethereum active addresses sits near 400,000, according to Glassnode.

That reading stands far below the February 2026 spike near 800,000. It also trails the June local peak of roughly 460,000. In other words, accumulation is not yet backed by growing usage.

Crowd sentiment has also turned deeply bearish, although Santiment treats such readings as contrarian signals. The previous two pessimism extremes preceded ETH rebounds.

ETH Price Prediction as $2,000 Caps the Breakout

The daily chart shows why these signals matter now. A descending trendline from the August 2025 record high rejected the ETH price five times before the mid-July breakout, which came with futures open interest near $19.8 billion.

The price has held above the broken trendline for two weeks. It now presses into the resistance zone just below $2,000, a level with clear psychological weight.

A confirmed daily close above $2,000 could open the way toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,438. That target sits about 24% above the current price and overlaps the supply zone from May.

However, rejection remains possible. In that scenario, ETH could retest the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $1,754 and the broken trendline near $1,600. The green demand zone in that area has supported the price before.

Volume keeps declining during the recovery, which fits an accumulation phase but leaves the breakout unconfirmed. Either the whales, the ETFs, and the chart pull the price through $2,000, or ETH revisits the zone that launched this move.