Gold Price Holds Above $4,000: Will Oil Surge Push It Lower?

Gold managed to capture $4,000 an ounce Monday after spending the weekend just under that key psychological price point. Brent crude surged past $90 a barrel, and Federal Reserve officials pushed for a July rate hike.

The metal posted a 2.5% weekly loss last week. Gold briefly broke below $4,000, a level it first breached in late June for the first time since November 2025.

Oil Shock Reignites Inflation Fears

The US carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran. Two American personnel died in Jordan, and allies reported fresh Iranian attacks Sunday.

The fighting pushed oil prices past $90 a barrel, reviving inflation fears just as June’s data showed cooling prices.

Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack joined a growing chorus of officials that argued interest rates may need to rise again. The comments set up a contentious debate at Kevin Warsh’s next meeting, with Warsh already signaling little patience for backsliding.

He told the House Financial Services Committee the Fed has

“no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation”

A Bear Market for Metals

COMEX speculators raised net long gold positions to 119,147 contracts in the week to July 14, CFTC data showed. That build suggests traders still expect further upside.

Gold’s pullback follows broader bear-market signals across precious metals. Silver has also seen a sharp pullback, and gold’s war-hedge performance has been uneven through the conflict.

Oil-driven war risk usually boosts gold’s safe-haven appeal. Here, the same oil spike is fueling rate-hike bets that punish non-yielding bullion instead. That dynamic could offset some safe-haven demand from the Gulf conflict.

Whether gold breaks below $4,000 again may depend on this week’s Fed comments and oil prices.