Goldman Sachs Limits, but Doesn’t Stop, Employees Using Kalshi and Polymarket

Goldman Sachs has told employees to confine their prediction market activity to sports and entertainment. The bank hopes to limit compliance risks tied to betting on elections, interest rates, and other market-moving events.

The bank issued the policy through an internal memo. It warned that repeated violations could lead to termination, a person familiar with the matter told the Financial Times.

Kalshi and Polymarket Face Insider Trading Scrutiny

Both platforms have drawn scrutiny over users profiting from advance knowledge of major events. Lookonchain flagged three wallets that netted more than $630,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro’s removal hours before his capture. Nobel Peace Prize organizers separately investigated a possible leak after a run of successful wagers on the eventual winner.

Kalshi and Polymarket have since rolled out new rules targeting insider trading and market manipulation. The scrutiny comes as Kalshi pursues a $40 billion valuation in a new funding round, underscoring how fast institutional capital is flowing into the sector.

Why Wall Street Banks Are Wary of Prediction Bets

Banks like Goldman sit close to material non-public information that can move markets. That proximity forces strict limits on what trades employees can make, and prediction platforms complicate those controls.

Kalshi and Polymarket let users wager on outcomes ranging from elections to where the S&P 500 will land at a given moment, blurring the line between entertainment and market-sensitive speculation.

Both platforms still earn most of their revenue from sports betting. Kalshi, meanwhile, is pushing into financial services with a new block-trading operation, a sign prediction markets want a permanent seat at Wall Street’s table.