Rep. Bryan Steil introduce bill seeking to block congress from prediction market wagers

Rep. Bryan Steil, the Wisconsin Republican who chairs the House Administration Committee, introduced a bill Thursday that would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children from betting on prediction markets tied to government policy, legislation, or political outcomes.

Capitol Hill has taken a keen interest in Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms have practically exploded over the past year, letting users bet real money on everything from interest rate decisions to who gets indicted next. 

Rep. Bryan Steil argues that members of Congress should not participate in these prediction markets, as they can use insider information to profit from these platforms. Since members of Congress are briefed on classified information, they often have access to it before it becomes public, and if they use it to bet on public platforms, it is unfair to the public. 

Steil aims to close this loophole by banning Congress from betting on whether a government action will occur. The bill also seeks to prevent members of the congress on betting on any political outcome they learn about as a result of their job. The bill, however, allows lawmakers to participate in other aspects of prediction markets, including sports betting and any other activities unrelated to their official duties. 

Army soldier cashes out $400,000 on President Maduro’s capture

An unknown user placed a bet on Polymarket that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be ousted before the end of the month. The user won the bet and pocketed $400,000, sparking public questions. 

Federal prosecutors traced the bet to an active Army soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who was accused of using confidential military information to place the wager. During the same period, there were already discussions over congressional stock trading, and the incident added fuel to the fire. 

As a result, the Senate quickly passed a new bill by unanimous consent in late April. The bill barred senators and staff from participating in the prediction market altogether. Rep. Ashley Hinson followed with a House version and pushed leadership to bring it to the floor right away. Speaker Mike Johnson held off, saying he wanted broader buy-in first, while Majority Leader Steve Scalise noted Steil’s committee was already working on a bill and needed room to “get this right.”

Bill builds on the congressional stock trading ban

Rep. Steil’s bill is akin to the initial bill that sought to prevent Congress from buying new shares of Individual stocks. The bill was already backed by Johnson and President Trump. Steil’s committee advanced a companion piece, the Stop Insider Trading Act, back in January, so the prediction market language extends a project that’s been building for months rather than starting one from scratch.

The bill includes a penalty structure that requires members to remain accountable and pay out of pocket for any violations. Members of Congress can’t tap their office expense accounts or campaign funds to cover the fine, and if someone leaves Congress without paying, the Justice Department can pursue it civilly. Steil argued that “lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome.”

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