2026 FIFA World Cup could add $5–$10 billion in prediction market trading

Prediction markets are expected to be greatly impacted by the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

According to a June 2026 Bernstein analysis, trade on both regulated and decentralized exchanges might increase by $5 billion to $10 billion.

Since online betting sites now compete with established sportsbooks for clients during one of the largest sporting events in the world, the event has become crucial for the industry.

Prediction markets’ collaborations with significant soccer organizations have contributed to this expansion.

Kalshi recently became an official sponsor of the Asociación del Fútbol Argentino (AFA) for the 2026 World Cup and announced the partnership in a joint Instagram post with Lionel Messi.

Both parties will collaborate on marketing and social media initiatives, and Kalshi is permitted to use AFA emblems and Argentina’s well-known team colors in its promos.

Kalshi will receive the match data required to fulfill its prediction market contracts from Genius Sports, the AFA’s official data provider, as part of the agreement.

Following the announcement, all parties discussed the significance of the agreement.

According to Leandro Petersen, Chief Commercial and Marketing Officer of the AFA, it demonstrated how the federation’s standing continues to expand globally.

Argentina is the benchmark for world soccer, according to Adam Barrick, Head of Sports Partnerships at Kalshi, and the agreement aligns with Kalshi’s vision for the future of fan interaction.

Big wins and steep losses mark the FIFA tournament

Trading activity on both Polymarket and Kalshi has climbed sharply during the World Cup, with some bettors risking multimillion-dollar sums on single matches.

One of the most notable examples was a Polymarket user who made $9.24 million in a single day by accurately predicting the outcomes of four games.

Interest has been especially strong in the market predicting the tournament winner, which has generated nearly $2.5 billion in volume on Polymarket alone.

Observers are paying closer attention to big bets and the traders making them as more money enters these markets.

There have been both spectacular wins and heartbreaking losses in the tournament.

The trader made $9.24 million in a single day after winning four straight bets, including a $7.03 million bet that Iran would lose against New Zealand.

Over the course of four days, a third individual earned $764,000, and another made approximately $427,000 into $4.7 million on Spain’s draw with Cape Verde.

On the other hand, a trader who bet that Argentina would lose to Algeria lost $1.2 million, and another lost almost $392,000.

The games have also altered the title odds, with France now ahead of Argentina and Spain on both Polymarket and Kalshi.

European regulators raise the alarm

European officials have responded strongly to this rapid expansion, claiming that the unregulated websites pose serious risks associated with illicit gaming.

Regulators are also paying attention to platforms known as “prediction markets” because the World Cup often results in a spike in betting.

These websites allow users to form contracts regarding the likelihood of future political, economic, and sporting events. They have expanded from modest offers to significant enterprises in a matter of years.

Together with regulators from Germany, Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Spain, the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority (Gespa) issued a statement.

The authorities declared that they would monitor and, if necessary, take action against platforms that violate local gambling regulations more carefully across international borders.

They cited concerns such as 24/7 access, no time or betting restrictions, lax age and identity verification, potential fraud, fluctuations in wealth, and the risk of gambling-related harm, particularly for younger persons.

According to Gespa Director Manuel Richard, there are no necessary precautions against adolescent access, addiction, manipulation, insider trading, or money laundering, and bets placed on these sites are not covered by the Swiss Money Gaming Act.

Any unlicensed foreign website that offers bets in Switzerland will be blocked, according to Gespa.

Additionally, the statement asked clubs, leagues, and sports federations to confirm the legitimacy of these operations before entering into contracts with them.

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