FIFA World Cup Bettors Bank Millions on Polymarket as One Trader Wins $9.24M in a Day

Prediction market traders are winning and losing millions on the 2026 World Cup, with one Polymarket bettor banking $9.24 million in a single day after correctly calling four match outcomes.

The tournament has turned platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi into high-stakes betting arenas. Traders are wagering seven-figure sums on single matches, and the results are producing both record payouts and steep losses.

Prediction Markets Surge During the World Cup

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where users buy yes-or-no shares on real-world outcomes. Kalshi runs a similar model.

Both platforms have seen heavy activity since the tournament began. The outright winner market on Polymarket alone has drawn more than $2.5 billion in volume.

That scale has made individual trades a spectacle. On-chain trackers now follow the biggest wallets in near real time.

Big Wins and Costly Bets

A standout winner went 4-for-4. According to Lookonchain, the trader staked $7.03 million on Iran not beating New Zealand. Iran drew 2-2, and that single bet returned $7.34 million. 

“He made $9.24M in a single day, winning all 4 of his bets for a 100% win rate,” the post read.

Another trader, fishalive, turned roughly $427,000 into $4.7 million after Spain drew 0-0 with Cape Verde at 9% odds. A third account, gardenshed, booked $764,000 in four days. It won 7 of 8 bets for an 87.5% win rate.

Losses were just as visible. One trader put about $1.2 million on Argentina not to beat Algeria, hoping to secure a $3.43 million payout.

Argentina won 3-0 behind a Lionel Messi hat-trick, and the trader lost. On Kalshi, another user lost $391,536 on the same outcome.

A separate Kalshi bettor put $373,407 on Algeria not to win, and that wager paid out $416,184.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

🚨UPDATE: Argentina moved up to 11% chance to win the World Cup after their first game.His position is now worth $1,208,377.45 on Polymarket… should he cash out or hold? https://t.co/OcbkMULbXa

— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 17, 2026

France Overtakes Spain as Title Favorite

Meanwhile, the odds have shifted sharply since the World Cup started. France now leads the Polymarket winner market at 18%. Spain trails at 13%, while Argentina holds 11%.

Kalshi shows a similar picture, with France at 18.7%, Spain at 13.3%, and Portugal at 10.9%. France has overtaken Spain as the favorite.

The coming group-stage matches will test whether trader bets keep paying or losses mount.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights