Ethereum Nears First-Ever 3 Straight Red Quarters as Bullish Signs Emerge

Ethereum (ETH) is on course to do something it has never done before. It is heading toward three consecutive red quarters for the first time in its history.

With about two weeks left before the quarter closes, ETH still has time to break the pattern. A macro lift and rising staking have kept hopes of a reversal alive.

Why a Third Red Quarter Would Be Historic For Ethereum

ETH has never closed three consecutive quarters in the red, Coinglass data shows. The second-largest cryptocurrency fell 28.28% in Q4 2025 and 29.26% in Q1 2026. It is down 18.4% this quarter.

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The price slump has pushed ETH near multi-year lows and sentiment into deep fear.

“Ethereum is on track for its 2nd worst first half of the year after 2022,” an analyst noted.

The Bullish Case For Ethereum

With two weeks left in the quarter, Ethereum still has time to avoid a pattern it has never experienced before. For now, momentum appears to be turning in its favor.

Broader risk markets have strengthened following reports of a US-Iran peace agreement. The news lifted the total cryptocurrency market capitalization by 2% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum has outperformed slightly, gaining 2.6% over the same period to trade above $1,700.

At the same time, historical trends offer additional support for the bullish case. ETH has recorded a positive quarter immediately after every previous instance of back-to-back quarterly losses. 

In 2022, for example, Ethereum declined for two consecutive quarters before rebounding 24% in the following quarter. Similar, though more modest, recoveries followed consecutive red quarters in 2019 and 2020.

However, there is a caveat. Any recovery would likely need to extend into Q3, which has historically been Ethereum’s weakest quarter, delivering an average return of just 7.44%. While history suggests ETH tends to bounce back after prolonged weakness, seasonal trends indicate the path higher may not be straightforward.

Staking and Technical Signals Lean Bullish

Besides seasonal trends, technical indicators are also signaling a potential Ethereum bottom. Analyst Ardi said several metrics are aligning with previous cycle lows, including ETH’s recent touch of a blue lower acceptance cloud and RSI trends.

However, he cautioned that “worst isn’t over yet,” when it comes to the price. Weekly RSI has yet to spend multiple weeks below 30 as seen in prior cycles, while the ETH/BTC pair remains in a strong downtrend.

“ETH has more downside incoming as long as its pair bleeds. But last cycle, ETH bottomed 6 months before BTC… Timing the bottom is improbable. But we’re in the second half of the bear market year,” the analyst remarked.

At the same time, on-chain data points to resilient demand. More than 39.5 million ETH is now staked across more than 887,000 validators, reflecting strong long-term conviction among holders.

This trend does not align with a strongly bearish outlook. Instead, the continued growth in staked ETH suggests investors are choosing to lock up their holdings rather than sell, helping limit potential on-chain selling pressure.

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