Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Loses $75,000 Level, What Is the Outlook for the Second Half of 2026?

TradingKey - Multiple adverse macro variables have triggered capital outflows, with Bitcoin losing key support levels, making a further pullback highly likely.

On May 28, Bitcoin ( BTC) prices fell below $75,000, triggering bearish anxiety in the market. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin prices plummeted by over 3%, currently trading at $72,868, hitting a new low since April 13 this year. Meanwhile, the Market Sentiment Index dropped to 31, touching its April 4 low, as fear intensifies.

Bitcoin price chart, Source: TradingView

Bitcoin's loss of the $75,000 level this time is not merely the result of technical exhaustion among bulls, but rather a resonance of multiple macro variables and capital flows. According to a statement issued by Iran today, the U.S. military launched an airstrike on a location in the suburbs of Bandar Abbas this morning; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently struck that U.S. base, reigniting tensions in what had been a stabilizing situation. This spurred a sharp rise in oil prices, with WTI crude ( USOIL) surging over 2%, breaking above $90 per barrel.

Previously, Kevin Hassett, former Chief Economic Advisor to President Trump, stated that oil prices would eventually fall to create room for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, oil prices currently remain elevated, significantly weakening the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. The market also generally believes that the probability of a rate cut this year is slim, with even rate hikes being a possibility, which is clearly unfavorable for risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Amid unfavorable macro conditions, capital continues to flee. Since May 15, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows, with the scale increasing yesterday to a staggering $733 million—more than the total outflows of the previous week. This has created an instantaneous vacuum in buying power within the Bitcoin spot market.

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows, Source: CoinGlass

Furthermore, the derivatives market had accumulated excessively high funding rates and leveraged long positions above $75,000. As spot prices broke below this support line, it triggered algorithmic cascading liquidations, further exacerbating short-term downward momentum. According to Coinglass data, over 160,000 traders were liquidated in the crypto market over the past 24 hours, totaling over $900 million. Long positions accounted for $873 million, or 93%. Among all cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin contract liquidations reached $363 million, representing nearly 39%.

In the second half of the year, if the situation in the Middle East escalates further and impacts global supply chains, or if major global central banks deliver surprise 'hawkish' rate hikes due to a resurgence in inflation, global capital markets will adopt a defensive posture. In such a scenario, BTC may fail to hold even the $70,000 level, with the line of defense shifting down to $60,000. A loss of this support would signal the complete end of the current rally and the beginning of a deep correction period.

Naturally, if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran concludes, the outlook for Bitcoin prices would turn more optimistic, potentially reclaiming the $80,000 mark. However, further gains would require positive catalysts such as the U.S. midterm elections, developments in prediction markets, or the passage of relevant legislation; otherwise, the market is likely to remain in a wide consolidation phase.