Polymarket Odds Flash 73% on Clarity Act Becoming Law in 2026

Polymarket traders now assign a 73% probability to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026.

This marks a sharp rise from 46% at the start of May. The increase comes days before a pivotal Senate Banking Committee markup.

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Why the May 14 Clarity Act Markup Matters

The Senate Banking Committee will meet on Thursday, May 14, in the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C., to consider the bill. This marks progress on the crypto market structure legislation, which stalled in the Senate after clearing the House in July.

Reporter Eleanor Terrett confirmed that draft text had been circulated to select industry members ahead of the vote. The markup gives the panel a fresh shot before the White House’s July 4 signing target.

Meanwhile, banking trade groups are pressing for last-minute revisions to a yield compromise brokered by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks. The proposed tweaks would further restrict stablecoin issuers from offering rewards to holders.

The bill is widely viewed as a major development for the crypto market, with industry experts suggesting it could provide a strong tailwind for the sector. According to Grayscale, the CLARITY Act would affect nearly every segment of the digital asset industry by establishing clearer regulatory standards.

“The CLARITY Act can catalyze the next phase of innovation and capital formation in digital assets by replacing uncertainty with structure, providing developers, businesses, and investors with a long-awaited asset and regulatory legal framework,” Zach Pandl, Grayscale Head of Research, wrote.

Now, Thursday’s vote will signal whether the Senate can hit the July target.

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