Ripple Price Forecast: XRP recovery outlook deteriorates despite bullish sentiment surging
- XRP whipsaws around $1.37 after failing to breach the $1.40 supply, weighed down by fading investor appetite.
- XRP derivatives market exhibits steady weakness, with futures Open Interest narrowing to $2.45 billion.
- XRP records its second-highest bullish sentiment on social media in over two years despite weak technicals.
Ripple (XRP) is under pressure, trading around $1.37 at the time of writing on Thursday as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tone. The central bank met expectations, leaving interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range on Wednesday amid the uncertainty around the United States (US)-Iran peace talks.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Committee will continue to assess the impact of the high energy prices and tariff shocks on inflation before considering easing its current restrictive policy.
XRP retail demand fades amid mild ETF inflows
Retail investor participation in XRP appears to be waning, as indicated by a decline in perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) to $2.45 billion on Thursday from $2.52 billion the previous day.
While CoinGlass data shows that the OI has steadied above $2.00 billion, it pales in comparison to the $10.94 billion record high in July. Low retail interest suggests that investors lack conviction in XRP’s ability to sustain an uptrend.
Meanwhile, XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) extended inflows for the second day, drawing $3.59 million on Wednesday, a mild increase from $2.20 million on Tuesday. Cumulative inflows now stand at $1.30 billion, with net assets under management averaging $1.04 billion.
Santiment data released on Thursday shows that traders are excited about XRP on social media, driving bullish sentiment to the second-highest level in over two years. The positive sentiment follows XRP’s integration into the Rakuten ecosystem, which bridges Japan’s extensive loyalty-point economy with crypto payments.
Users of the Rakuten Wallet can now directly convert their accumulated loyalty points into XRP, increasing the token’s adoption and utility. It is worth noting that while the wallet has recently added support for other coins, including Stellar (XLM), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Shiba Inu (SHIB), XRP stands out for its full-fledged integration with direct payments within the Rakuten platform.
“ As far as price goes, these events don’t often instantly lead to major price outbreaks. It is usually after the initial wave of euphoria, after FOMO calms down, that the impact of this kind of news sees the bullish outcome,” Santiment researchers explained.
Technical outlook: XRP declines as bears tighten grip
XRP trades at $1.37, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as price holds below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1.41, $1.52 and $1.76, respectively. The downward resistance trendline sits well above the spot and reinforces the broader topside supply, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 45 on the daily chart. A slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggests downside momentum remains but is not yet oversold.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA around $1.41, where any rebound is likely to be capped. A break above this level would open the way toward the prior trendline region near $1.51 and then the 100-day EMA at $1.52, with the 200-day EMA further up at $1.76 acting as a major medium-term barrier. Support is seen at $1.35, XRP's weekly low. A decisive close below this level could accelerate the sell-off toward $1.30.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
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