Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH eyes decline to $2,200 as Fed hawkish tone weighs

Ethereum price today: $2,230

• Ethereum has declined toward $2,200 after the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and showed a hawkish bias.
• Exchange reserves have risen by over 226K ETH since the beginning of the week amid declining US interest.
• ETH could find support near $2,211 after breaching the 20-day and 50-day EMAs.

Ethereum (ETH) declines below $2,300 on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) decided to hold interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and signaled increasing internal division over any upcoming interest-rate cuts.

The decision came after a split among committee members, with an 8-4 vote in favor of the move. Three regional bank presidents pushed to remove the inclusion of "easing bias" from the central bank's statement, signaling that there is more and more resistance to further interest-rate cuts. Such outlook doesn't favor risk assets like crypto.

The Fed's decision comes as ETH faces rising selling pressure.

The Ethereum Exchange Reserve, which measures the total number of coins held in exchanges, has been on an uptrend since the beginning of the week. Over the past three days, reserves have risen by roughly 226,000 ETH, indicating rising selling pressure.

The rising exchange deposits are also evident in several transactions highlighted by smart money tracker Lookonchain. Wallets linked to Fenbushi Capital and Genesis Trading have offloaded ETH to exchanges over the past 24 hours.

Notably, a participant in Ethereum's initial coin offering (ICO) moved 10,000 ETH to a new wallet after it had remained dormant for nearly 11 years.

The activity marks the continuation of a distribution pattern retail investors began last week, after offloading over 750,000 ETH.

US interest weakens alongside decline in staking flows

The Coinbase Premium Index, an indicator of US investors' interest, also slipped into negative territory during the period, signaling that traders in the region are becoming cautious. US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) align with the negative sentiment, posting two consecutive days of net outflows since the beginning of the week, according to SoSoValue data.

The weakness has also filtered into the total staked ETH supply, which has halted its uptrend over the past week, resulting in a decline of 140,000 ETH. The validator exit queue has also risen from below 1000 to above 414,000 ETH, a negative signal.

However, the entry queue is also rising, growing by over 600,000 ETH in the past week. A key driver of the increase is Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR).

The firm staked an additional 106,200 ETH on Tuesday, according to Lookonchain. Earlier on Monday, it reported holdings of 5.078 million ETH, of which it had staked 3.7 million.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH breaches 20-day and 50-day EMAs, eyes $2,211 support

Ethereum has seen $149.7 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, driven by $110.3 million in liquidated long positions.

On the daily chart, ETH has slipped below the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $2,287, $2,242 and $2,366, respectively, keeping a bearish near-term tone.

Momentum metrics reinforce this corrective bias, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling to a neutral-to-soft 47 and the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) sinking into oversold territory. The move hints that while downside pressure persists, the sell-off could start to lose intensity.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the horizontal level around $2,211, ahead of a stronger floor near $2,107. A break there would expose the prior base zones at $1,909 and $1,741.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-day and 100-day EMAs, while a sustained move above the horizontal barrier at $2,388 would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way toward higher resistance levels at $2,746 and $3,411.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)