Gold defies 6.3% US PPI as Treasury yield slide fuels rally
- Gold surges more than 1% to $4,148 despite hotter-than-expected US producer inflation.
- The 10-year Treasury yield tumbles 10 basis points, weakening the US Dollar.
- October Fed hike odds fall to 26% ahead of Warsh's speech.
Gold price climbs after another US inflation report on Thursday. Although the snapshot of US wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected, it was already priced in by investors, who trimmed their hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed). That produced a tailwind for the yellow metal, which benefits from lower interest rate environments. The XAU/USD trades at $4,148, up 1.1%.
Bullion rebounds as falling Treasury yields and reduced October Fed hike bets lift Bullion
Bullion prices recovered following a red-hot US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, which prompted investors to increase hawkish Fed bets. Nevertheless, toward the end of the session, traders reduced those bets ahead of the release of Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI).
The US PPI in September jumped above the 6% threshold, largely due to a rise in energy prices. The headline print exceeded estimates of 5.3%, surging to 6.3% YoY, while underlying inflation jumped from 4.8% to 5%, also above forecasts.
The Greenback and US Treasury yields initially steadied, before weakening, a tailwind for the precious metal. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six peers, edged down 0.4% to 102.11. At the same time, the yield of the US 10-year benchmark bond fell ten basis points to 5.089%.
After the data release, money markets now expect a 26% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed at the October 28 meeting, though for December they priced in a 92% chance.
In the meantime, Federal Reserve officials, led by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Governor Michelle Bowman, stated that an immediate rate hike might not be needed.
US Retail Sales in September also cooled from 1.3% to 0.8% MoM but came in better than economists' projections of 0.3%. Further data showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 10 came at 199K, below forecasts of 200K.
Investors are also looking for comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting, looking for clues ahead of this month's Fed meeting.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold jumps back above $4,100 but remains bearish
On Wednesday, Gold reached a weekly low of $4,073, but during Thursday’s sessionit reclaimed the $4,100 mark and is hovering near $4,150. Despite this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish but is showing signs that buyers are moving in.
For a bullish reversal, buyers need to clear $4,200 before testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,245. Above lies the 50-day SMA at $4,334.
For a bearish continuation, the first support for XAU/USD is $4,100. A decisive breakdown will expose the October 14 low of $4,073, then the July 29 cycle low at $3,996, and finally the July 17 low at $3,959. Below that is the yearly low at $3,941.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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