WTI falls to near $93.00 as OPEC+ output surges, Russian diesel agreement looms
- WTI falls as OPEC+ September output jumped 900,000 bpd, led by Saudi Arabia's production boost.
- Markets expect added diesel supplies from a US-Russia deal, which Moscow says is unrelated to peace talks.
- Trump announced Taiwan’s $4.4 billion investment in the Alaska LNG pipeline, citing falling energy prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declines after four days of gains, trading around $93.20 per barrel during European hours on Wednesday. Oil prices fall after OPEC+, the alliance comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members and allies like Russia, reported a sharp September production increase of 900,000 barrels per day, averaging 39.07 million bpd. The surge was led by Saudi Arabia, which boosted output by over 2 million bpd.
Meanwhile, markets hope a US-Russia diesel deal will unlock additional supplies, though Moscow clarified the export agreement is unrelated to Ukraine peace talks, countering reports that it was meant to encourage negotiations.
Energy prices eased following an announcement by US President Donald Trump that Taiwan will purchase 30% of the gas produced by the Alaska LNG pipeline and invest approximately $4.4 billion in the project. This commitment adds to South Korea's previous $50 billion pledge toward the initiative. In his statements, Trump reiterated his expectation that energy prices will decline soon and predicted a swift resolution to the war with Iran.
However, energy traders remain cautious about the outlook. Escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to spark persistent fears of potential supply disruptions across the Middle East, keeping market sentiment guarded.
Oil policy calculus shifts as US midterms approach
Analysts at Rabobank highlight the political sensitivity around current energy prices, noting that “the Trump Administration does not want Brent crude oil at $106/bbl going into the midterm elections, just a month away.” They add that the White House “has said that he only plans to escalate offenses against Iran after the midterms are over, with what he hopes to be, a red wave,” underlining how the timing of US actions on Iran is being calibrated against the domestic electoral calendar and the perceived tolerance for higher Oil prices.
Technical Analysis: WTI falls despite ongoing bullish bias
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $93.20, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of price above these trend-following gauges suggests that the broader upswing remains intact, even after recent consolidation. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.07 sits comfortably above the neutral 50 line, hinting at steady, rather than overstretched, buying pressure, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index near 131.63 points to a still-supportive macro backdrop for crude.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA around $91.73, with a deeper cushion at the 50-day EMA near $89.31, where dip-buying interest would likely re-emerge if prices retreat. With no clearly defined overhead technical barriers in the current dataset, the bullish structure suggests room for further gains as long as WTI continues to trade above these moving average floors; a daily close back under $91.73 would be the first sign that upside momentum is starting to fade.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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