IEA confirms: Oil demand to rise by 1.2M bpd YoY in Q4
According to the latest forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global Oil demand will rise by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) Year-on-Year (YoY) in the last quarter of this year. The agency also forecasts that the oil supply will expand 7.5 million bpd this year if transits improve. The IEA also stated that the oil demand will ease to 1.7 million bpd in the third quarter from 4.8 million in the April-June period.
Considering the latest Ukraine attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, the agency has downgraded its projections on Russian oil production. It expects oil output from Russia to reach 8.9 million bpd this year and 8.8 million bpd in 2027, down from 9.2 million bpd in 2025.
Market reaction
There seems to be no immediate impact on oil prices from IEA's oil demand forecasts. At press time, the WTI Oil price trades marginally lower to near $71.45.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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