Silver: Downside risks grow after failed rally – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Silver has extended its pullback toward USD71/oz after a failed break above USD80 in mid-April, with higher Brent, hawkish rate repricing and a firmer US Dollar (USD) weighing on non-yielding metals. Technicals have turned bearish, with a rising wedge pattern and support at USD70 and USD63, where a break could trigger a deeper decline toward USD50.

Bearish momentum with key supports below

"Silver extended its pullback this week, sliding toward USD71/oz as the failed break above USD80 earlier in mid-April gave way to position trimming. The move reinforces the sense that silver’s rally had become stretched and macro environment has also turned less friendly."

"Higher oil prices, with brent near USD120/bbl keeps inflation concerns alive, while hawkish repricing in rates and a firmer USD reduced appetite for non-yielding metals. Silver’s weakness also reflected its industrial beta in which markets may be less willing to chase while growth risks and PV-related demand uncertainty remain in focus. "

"Near term, momentum looks fragile, though dips may still find some support from the broader deficit narrative and physical investment demand. On a technical note, silver was last seen at 71.30 levels. Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI fell to near oversold conditions."

"Rising wedge pattern observed – typically associated with bearish reversal. Risks skewed to downside. Immediate support at 70, 63 levels (200 DMA). Break below those levels risk deeper pullback towards 50. Resistance at 75 (21 DMA), 78/80 (50, 100 DMAs)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)