WTI rallies as Qatar’s Kaabi expects oil price to surge to $150/barrel amid Iran conflicts
- The Oil price extends the advance to neat $82.80 as Qatar’s Kaabi warns of serious oil supply concerns.
- Qatar’s Kaabi said that Middle East conflicts could drive oil to $150 a barrel.
- Higher oil prices are expected to prompt inflationary pressures across the globe.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, surges to near $82.80 during the European trading session on Friday, the highest level seen since July 2024. The oil price has extended the advance after Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East, which involves the United States (US), Israel, and Iran, could drive oil to $150 a barrel, Financial Times (FT) reported.
Saad al-Kaabi expressed concerns in the interview that oil producers in the Gulf countries would declare force majeure, a situation that free parties from liability in case of an unforeseeable event, and suspend supply if hostilities continue. Kaabi added that even if the war ended immediately it would take Qatar "weeks to months" to return to a normal cycle of deliveries.
Earlier this week, Qatar’s largest Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) plant, Ras Laffan facility, was forced to stop production after it was hit by an Iranian drone.
Fears of oil supply shortage has strengthened the oil price, and are further likely to prompt supply-side inflation expectations in the entire world. Lately, traders have pared dovish expectations for global central bankers.
Meanwhile, the Iran conflict has entered in its seventh day and has been escalating as US President Donald Trump has expressed disapproval to Mojtaba Khamenei for the succession of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Axios reported. Trump has shown willingness to involve in Iran’s diplomacy for the appointment of new Supreme Leader.
In the US, investors will focus on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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