Euro: French political stress raises volatility – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit highlight rising French political risk, as protests and looting drive French bond yields sharply higher and authorities consider curfews. They argue France cannot be allowed to fail within the EU, but question whether the Rassemblement National (RN), France’s far-right National Rally party can be allowed to succeed, flagging an ECB policy dilemma that could weigh on the Euro and broader EU stability.

French turmoil and ECB dilemma

"Yesterday saw an ugly bond reaction to the ugly protests and looting in France (and Belgium and Italy, following earlier peaceful protests in Spain and Portugal) with 10-year French yields +13bps, Italian +8bps, and German +3bps."

"Even if we only focus on fiscal metrics, French 10-year borrowing costs are now half a rate hike higher than Friday."

"Of course, France can’t be allowed to fail given its importance within the EU. Then again, can the RN be allowed to succeed?"

"The hypothetical whispered realpolitik binary is between the ECB bailing France out if needed, at a cost to the Euro and the fury of Germany, and not doing so at a cost to EU economic, political, and market stability."

"But could the ECB bail everybody else out from French contagion and leave Paris to sort out its mess?"

"Whatever happens now, more volatility seems far more likely than a ‘reversion to mean’. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)