"The bar for a material hawkish turn is high": ING says the Bank of Canada won't surprise next week

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is outperforming the US Dollar in the short term, pulling the USD/CAD pair down from recent multi-month highs. This corrective move comes at a crucial juncture, as global markets look ahead to the Bank of Canada's (BoC) upcoming policy meeting. While technical indicators suggest that the Greenback's premium over the Loonie is overextended relative to bond yields, fundamental analysts caution that domestic softness and looming trade risks will ultimately limit the Canadian Dollar's scope for a sustained recovery.

Tactically expensive premium leaves USD/CAD vulnerable to a deeper pullback

Societe Generale points out that the US Dollar’s recent rally against the Canadian Dollar has become fundamentally detached from underlying fixed-income markets. After encountering a firm ceiling near the 1.4250 mark, the currency cross has surrendered ground and is currently testing critical structural support zones. If these technical floors fail to hold, the pair could trigger an extended short-term unwinding toward its medium-term moving averages.

USD/CAD encountered interim resistance around 1.4250 last month and has since retraced toward the upper boundary of its previous broad consolidation range near 1.4130, which could serve as a potential support. Should a break below 1.4130 materialize, USD/CAD may embark on a deeper pullback.

Cool hiring trends and trade policy risks challenge the Loonie's upside

ING highlights that Canada's labor market is expected to show a sharp deceleration in net recruitment activity alongside sticky wage growth pressures. They argue that despite a slight revival in hawkish central bank bets and stable Oil markets providing temporary relief to the Loonie, a benign domestic inflation outlook and looming trade uncertainties mean the bar for a genuine hawkish policy shift remains high.

We think the bar for a material hawkish turn by the Bank of Canada is high, and we don’t expect surprises at next week’s meeting. Unless oil rallies back to April-May levels, the inflation outlook remains too benign to hike, especially considering downside risks for jobs and activity related to USMCA uncertainty.

Banks anticipate a range-bound trajectory for the Canadian Dollar

The banks anticipate a supportive near-term environment for the Canadian Dollar, but expect its broader appreciation to remain restricted. Societe Generale flags distinct downside risks for the USD/CAD currency pair, noting that because it is tactically overvalued against the 2-year yield spread, a breakdown past 1.4130 could quickly drag spot prices toward 1.4075 and its 50-day moving average near 1.3950. 

Meanwhile, ING maintains a conservative baseline outlook for the Loonie's medium-term path, concluding that while fading US Dollar momentum is helping the CAD outpace the Greenback this week, escalating USMCA-related risk premiums across the third quarter will prevent USD/CAD from sustaining any moves below the psychological 1.4000 threshold.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)