EUR/JPY trades flat around 183.75 while investors remain on toes amid intervention hopes
- EUR/JPY trades calmly amid hopes that Japan could intervene again.
- Japan’s Mimura said that he will closely monitor the forex markets.
- The risk-on impulse has improved the Euro’s appeal.
The EUR/JPY pair trades in a tight range around 183.75 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The pair struggles for a direction as investors remain on the sidelines amid hopes that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) could intervene again.
Japan’s Vice Finance Minister (FM) for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, said earlier in the day, that he will closely monitor the foreign exchange (FX) markets. However, Mimura declined to comment on specific levels where an intervention could take place.
While there has been no official confirmation from Japan that it has intervened in markets to counter one-way speculative moves against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the last few trading days, there have been strong upside moves in the Asia-Pacific currency on April 30 and May 6.
Although they’ve not commented officially, I think we have to assume that the MoF stepped in again," analysts at Pepperstone said, adding, "You don’t get a huge move like that, with no obvious catalyst, unless there’s a ‘silent hand’ involved, Reuters report.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm as the risk-on impulse remains boosted amid firm hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An Axios report has shown that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.
Going forward, investors will focus on European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech, which is scheduled for Friday, for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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